Hat with No Mane, Drill's Hat, same difference.

1 year old price.

Sales.

1. bought for vivid tossle ~4.1 after overpay

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2544889756,150,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2545135067,631,5

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044637366?time=1398495600

nothing was added to the HWNN

2. quicksold for 2.6 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19491869

trade is still up, hat is no longer in his bp.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198032952143?time=1398495600 - buyer's backpack, pre-buying

http://backpack.tf/item/92126767 - 1 bud he used (that duping, but both names are on the history in the right order)

http://backpack.tf/item/165390004 - 2nd bud

flicking back and forth between the 26th april and the 27th april shows he only lost 11 keys, going from 98 to 87.

3. sold with a p.e fez (4) for a hearts hwnn (7)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18909482

offered on the hearts hwnn so no overpay, ~3.

4. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19114476

quicksold within a day of the trade opening (opened on the 10th, no longer in his bp on the 11th)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197967726943?time=1397199600

preeeetty difficult to tell what for. he gained ~50 pure keys between snapshots, but with so many unusuals flying around it's hard to put a value on this one.

5. sold for a hearts ze goggles + 9 keys (3.1 + 0.5 = ~3.6)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19415954

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2550729660,177,5

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198041733707?time=1398495600 and sort by time, top row.

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mini on the hearts since it's outdated.

3.1 (low end for overpay purposes)

sold for scorching stuntman

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19180495

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2494813256,255,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19090244

3 pure

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Sellers (with listed prices):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19493705 - trying to quicksell for 3.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19492965 - 4.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19363761 - 4

^notably offered a vivid plasma Armored authority + white bills + 12 keys, around 4.1, offerer said he might go up to a bud + bills + AA, which would be 4.5

also notably offered a miami raincatcher plus 1 bud 15 keys, ~3.6 after overpay.

bearing in mind these recent two offers, both way above 3, I'm gonna call the 3 sale an outlier.