That moon is a spy. 1 year old price.

Sales.

1. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19200057

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19222239

offered on a demonflame backbiter's billycock http://backpack.tf/vote/id/535ea0f24cd7b861208b470a) 3.9*0.9

~3.5

2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19002591

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2489576486,602,5

sold for an eerie tyrants helm, 3.3*0.9

~3

credit to Jacobmeister for the next 2 sales.

3. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19002627

Sold for DBD Metal Slug (~2.3 buds) + 1.5 buds + G. Shred Alert (2 keys) = ~3.9 buds

4. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19332674

Quicksold for 3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19333209

buds here

Gonna roll with 3-3.9, not confident enough to call the eerie sale an outlier, this also means that if my demonflame billycock suggestion isn't accepted this one won't be affected.