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DP Gentleman's
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19253044 - added Pro Scatter + TS Bill's for Nuts TC (~2)
( http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198046986506?time=1398322800 )
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Strange%20Professional%20Killstreak%20Scattergun - average ~$30
http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key - average ~2.45
30/2.45 = ~12 keys
A lot of untracable sales/quicksells
Traded one I had for a S. Gunslinger + about 10 keys' worth of random stuff, which amounts to about 2 buds. So the price looks good to me.
I thought SCM wasn't valid proof...
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18180054
2 months ago, I did sell my cloud 9 safe n sound for this hat, which ends up around ~2.16 buds after overpay. Not sure how relevant that sale is, but at least it's a bit more grounded and simple.
Perhaps 2-2.2 would be better, or maybe get some simpler proof that doesn't have SCM speculation in it.
I've used the SCM many times, i.e. here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/530858a24cd7b8a7648b4568