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http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074014395?time=1397545200 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074014395?time=1397718000 - he sold it for a max, so I'd value the CM at 3 buds (it's gifted). After overpay that's 2.7 buds.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991429451?time=1398322800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197991429451?time=1398841200 did the ground control + 2 buds for a beams shako. That's 2 buds.
2 solid sales for a new unusual!
"Sales of duped hats can be used as adjuncts or as proof to raise the value on an unusual." - the cheat sheet.
You're establishing a range with it... I'm unsure on this one. Neutral.
There's also a rather big history on one DP Ground Control, surely you can find more sales?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19349252 - this sale happened before it was duped and is ~2.5 since the drill b/o was 3.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18749336 - spellbound nano ~2.5
Clean sales seem to be ~2.5-2.7. Duped sale at 2. I think it's best to price on the cleans.