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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19496239 - sold for 15 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021670081?time=1398063600 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021670081?time=1398063600 - this shows him buying one for 17 keys, then selling for a flies mining light - that's a 17 key sale and the mining light was last priced 10 months ago, too old to use as proof.
That's one 15 and one 17 sale, good range seems fitting.
Unsolds for a bud:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19495440
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18719021
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19047178 (1 bud + 1 key)
15 realy seems a quicksell shouldn't be in range
Seems legit
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18719021 sold for 18
the 15 key sale went pretty quickly, looks like a quicksale
+ another sale here - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19552842
One from your unsold sold also - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19495440
2nd unsold link sold. Item isn't in their backpack and latest comment saying "1 bud if you add one key" was accepted by trader. So, it still seems possible to sell for at least 18 keys or a bud and anything below is qs range.
Sold mine a few days ago for 1 Bud 3 Keys, sold the Bud for 19 Keys.
Downvote from me.