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I took some time to get better at suggesting things to come back and price this hat.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19326492 Sold for Secret Salty dog ( 7 buds ) <-- Using that overpay maths! ( See minisuggestion)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19274672 Bought for Miami yellow belt + Peace Kabuto ( 1.5 + 3 = 4.5 buds ) More overpay maths!
Salty dog Mini-suggestion thingy :
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19470306 Sold for DP Hallmark he added a Blizz robo stovepipe ( 8.5 - 1.6 = 6.9 = 7 buds )
I found other proofs, but it was all 4-5 months outdated. These are all the recent sales available. If you find more let me know.
That range is far to large. You'll need to find a third sale to determine the outlier. My guess is it'll be the 4.5 bud sale.
No third sale that's recent :C
Probably might just be better to wait 'till it sells again then. Also this is without mentioning the 5 month outdated Peace Buto price.
The price you are using on the yellow belt is a pre-update price. Hard to say how reliable that is now. That's just not usable in the absence of a mini-suggestion showing post update sales