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11 month old price, a few recent sales took place, but only 1 legit one can be found. I took my own sale (involving 6 unusuals) and try to give a rough estimation of that sale value to support that single legit sale. Quite a fair price imo, sitting just below burning.
Recent sales:
Sold for a burning front runner (15 buds):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18873626
Sold for a PE gonzilla (2.2), PE bonnet (2.6), PE bonk (2.4), Burning Mongolian (1.8), Steaming KE (lowest B/O - 3) + Sunbeams Larrikin (3.1) ~ 15 buds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19588193#latest
Sold with a SF RL (2) for a sunbeams hallmark + duped scorching fez ~ outlier:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19180982 - offer was made here
Not really sure about this:
Sold for a duped vintage big kill + cloudy moon grimm hatte:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18873626
3rd sale is mine and I think it reflects the price quite well.
9.7+8-1.9=15.8 strictly going by bp.tf prices, fairly close to 15 anyways, and the fez probably needs to be lowered, as it is also duped.
I just got an offer of a miami K.E that is unduped for my beams one- http://i.imgur.com/Er1tLYW.png ~25
Also want to say that the burning front runner is now ~17, and the seller of one of the clean ones is selling for 19 buds and turned down some nice 2013 offers- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19364041
Except he has to go by the prices at the time of the sales.
#rules
Clarification of rules
(1) Hats should be valued as they were "valued" at the time of the sale not necessarily what their listed price was at the time of the sale. Front runner suggestions were 11 months and 2 months ago. it doesn't matter here since the front runner sale was 1 month ago. But if the sale was 3 months ago, the suggestion 2 months ago most likely captures its value even if the listed price at the time was different since that was based on a very old suggestion.
(2) @grim, as indicated, the multi-hat trade rule applies to hats <10 buds in value. This hat is >10 buds. If we didn't allow multi-hat trades on high tiers, we would never be able to price most of them.
That sale at 16 is hard to ignore. Bunsen only has a 3 month old price, which isn't bad for a halloween effect. The conq has a 1 year old price, but it's still probably close to 1 or just under that. Doesn't really matter.
I think 15-16 would be better
Okay, resuggesting.
Miami KE itself needs a drop. 2 months old price on a high tier hat with 3rd gen effect. You don't really expect this to still be 25.
for example:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19344985 - selling for 18 buds (3 weeks unsold)
Like what SSJ5 said, about the burning front runner: Rules are rules.
Also, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19716760 , this is not ~18 buds (see below). Need to account overpay, and 3 hats are outdated.
How is the 3rd sale an outlier? You can just make a mini-suggestion for the hallmark. Sale is about 13-14 then.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19716760
1. Circling Heart Milkman (3.5 buds, 5 months old price)
2. Circling Heart Triboniophorus Tyrannus (4.4 buds)
3. Misty Skull Bunsen Brave (4.9, 3 months old price)
4. Stormy Storm Brainiac Hairpiece (2.4 buds)
5. Orbiting Planets Conquistador (1 bud, 1 year old price)
Total = ~ 16.2 buds with 3 invalid old proof.
Hats that most probably needs a drop:
- bunsen brave
- conquistador
How in the world did he come up with ~18 buds.
Also:
http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6033-new-unusual-price-suggestion-guide-the-cheat-sheet/
A note about complex sales:
Multi-hat trades involving 4 or more hats should be avoided when pricing unusuals unless the suggestion is for a high end hat (worth >10 buds). Basically, if a hat is a small piece in a large deal, that sale should not be used as proof.
Note: while one of my proof has 6 hats involved, it is just there to support the first sale. Using realistic ranges according to updated prices and lowest b/os.
Was just sharing it :-( agree that 18 is Lollllllllllll
chill mate, wasn't shooting you down or anything, was just explaining the issues about that proof. But thanks for the additional info :D
If we're going by backpack.tf price
1. Circling Heart Milkman (3.9)
2. Circling Heart Triboniophorus Tyrannus (4.9)
3. Misty Skull Bunsen Brave (5.4)
4. Stormy Storm Brainiac Hairpiece (2.7)
5. Orbiting Planets Conquistador (1.1)
Not sure if the (90% of hats price taken) rule still counts, but the way I offered him was that I was supposed to overpay on his hats
That's the average prices I'm getting from backpack.tf.
All things aside, I upvoted because the company man is definitely overpriced, and experienced traders would always tell me that as well, and I almost never got a decent (first gen or pure) offer that was above 15.
+upvoted. Burning one is ~17.5 so Beams one at ~15 is pretty reasonable.