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It's best to know the truth, of that we have no doubt, but you'll have to face the future. You'll have to face the future, when the truth comes out!
So, yeah. A straight jump to 3 ref.
1 Ref Quicksolds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19586130 - Less than a day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19528819 - Less than a day
3 Ref Solds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19515153#latest (Yes it is me)
- http://i.imgur.com/d3ILnfI.png
- http://i.imgur.com/edoRqVl.png (Item Overpay)
Other invalid links since I have a feeling they will be brought up:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15394780 - Wants 1 Key
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19389030 - Old trade and seems to be abandoned
So I realized this needed a price bump around 3 weeks ago when someone wanted to buy mine for a ref. I looked into it and realized that the price was outdated, so I declined only to have him offer 2.33. ( http://bazaar.tf/trade/748175 ) Right under the accepted S. Private Eye.
This item had been long overdue on a price bump, but none could be given since the Community Market is not valid proof on it's own (we seriously need to fix this somehow). I admit to flipping them on the Community Market since it was way more profitable and faster than waiting around for someone to find my trade on outpost, realize that I was using a fair price, and then either add me or send me an offer. I had one fellow (the one who commented on my trade) try and make me sell at 1 refined because it was "backpack price." Well, that is enough of that segue that turned into a minor rant.
Lowest on the Community Market: $1.15
(1.15)(7.55)/(2.30) = 3.775 Refined
(1)(7.55)/(2.30) = ~3.3 Refined
And somehow this is still semi-profitable off the Community Market with the proposed price :/
TL;DR: Price should have been updated at least 3 weeks ago, possibly even farther back, but the Community Market is not valid proof on its own. These things rarely hit the market, so it took me 3 weeks to get my hands on some to sell to prove that this needs a price bump. Everyone who sold theirs in those 3 weeks sold for 1 ref because it was the "backpack price" and the Face Plante's were bought almost instantly.
Two more quicksales. I have added both to confirm the selling price, but they are definitely quicksales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19631515 - Looks to be 1 ref
No change in the Buyer's Backpack Value from before or after purchase:
Before: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035780202?time=1399014000
After: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198035780202?time=1399273200
And it just had to be something I had to screenshot :/
http://i.imgur.com/Plc9F9t.png - Asked for 2 ref and looks to have gotten it.
-Unsure who it sold to, but it is no longer in his backpack and it isn't on the SCM
First sold in less than 11 hours. Second sold in less than 14 (probably less than 10, but I took the capture at 14)
If there was any other way to support this besides screen caps, I would gladly do that, so you know what is coming next.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19631515 - Confirmed Sold for 1 Ref
- http://i.imgur.com/zZpBten.png
irxon declined my friend request, so I cannot confirm if it did in fact sell for 2 ref aside from checking backpack histories. Either way, it was a quicksell.
Another insta-sold at 1 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19650248
- http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2575630864,30231,13
No bump and only 6 views :/
Buyers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19586355 - 1 ref (Been up a while, but looks to be horribly bumped)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19650254 - 1.33 ref
2 more trades up for offers: EXTREMELY YOUNG
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19677942
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19672402
EDIT:
So I wanted to see how fast 1 ref sells:
http://i.imgur.com/J70pk8C.png?1 - 11 Minutes
Above link: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19672402
- Already has an offer for 1 ref (3 ref for the face + wraith wrap)
1 Ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19701371 - Sold in ~ 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19672402 - (Above) Offer accepted
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19677942 - Sold in ~ 1 day or less? Not to sure.
Expected a price manipulator - everything went better than expected.
1ref didn't even sell to you, 1ref = QS.
So many people trying to get it for 1 from other threads, and a few offers above 1.
Most likely need a small increase, 3 looks fine - upvote.
I knew I forgot something. I should have looked for buyer trades. Thanks for the comment :D
http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/4249-new-rule-for-all-non-unusual-suggestions/
All the proof is your own (and mostly screenshots)
2 sales tho, and he proved that 1ref is a quicksale.
This is a great example of showing the recent sales/not QS - http://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Spectralnaut/Tradable/Craftable
I would have closed that. And both of the sales are his own
All of these more rare haunted/unique haunted versions should be more based of the recent sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15394780 - haunted hat offer? (4.33) & a 1.33 offer
The issue is that the average trader takes Backpack prices as definitive prices on their items. Any 1 ref listings get bought almost immediately by people who are aware of the Community Market price.
Even though it is self-incriminating, I am aware of this rule. The Steam Community Market proof should suffice as supporting proof of this price increase seeing how this item consistently sells at higher than the current price on the Steam Community Market. I was also the only reasonable seller for a little less than a week on Outpost. Everything else is explained more or less in the suggestion.
SCM isn't valid proof, but it can be used to prove a point and support the range if you got valid proof.
My understanding is the same as your explanation. I just used "supporting proof" as the term since saying the SCM isn't valid proof would give the wrong impression and saying "This proves my point" seems a bit arrogant, but that is just my opinion.
Wouldn't looking at the other sales decide the price? 1 ref is obviously a quicksell and 3 ref is the next best.
2 ref max.
And is there any proof for 2 ref? No. I had a rather easy time selling them at 3 ref as well.
I dont care about quality
Well, that does not matter here. Quality is important. Take a look at pretty much any item and the different qualities. There is almost always a price difference. You may not care, but other people do.
I know that , but it really think that 3 ref is high price.Really nice price 3-4 ref for lvl 100.
Well, you sort of contributed to more proof. Level 100 trade (Collector's Level) You offered 3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19543837
EDIT: Your offers for 3-4 ref on the Level 100's seem to be declined as well, so your "Good Price" isn't even good in the eyes of the sellers.
sentence fragment, run on sentence + false vocab
"i know that, but i really think 3 ref is a fairly expensive price, how-ever, it does seem like a good range for level 100's.****
prove it/ counter suggest
Great suggestion, Upvote
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15394780 - For the record, on top of the old haunted hat offer, ultimately sold for a key
While the solid sales for suggested price come from the one user, there is strong supporting proof from a variety of other sources. That, in combination with the scarcity of otherwise available proof and the strong support in the comments, make up for that issue in this case. This shouldn't be used as an excuse to use minimal proof or to try to suggest on items lacking sufficiently available proof in the future- this has been a borderline case in the full week it's been up.
Accepting.