I don't know why this is so expensive.

Sold for Australium Rocket Launcher (~2.8 at time of sale)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18945805 (Rocket)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18699957 (Cap)

Sold for Time Warp Ol'Snaggletooth (~3, see http://backpack.tf/vote/id/536820794dd7b867738b49ed )

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17743489

Sold for Green Confetti Rather Festive Tree (~1.8) and Orbiting Fire Hot Rod (~1, see mini)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18003898 (Cap)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18541639 (Tree and Hot Rod)

Offered on (and sold for) an Aces High Glasgow Great Helm (~2, calling this an outlier)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18057622

Mini for Orbiting Fire Hot Rod, would be a full suggestion but with a 2 year old price I think it needs more valid sales to be a full suggestion;

Sold for Stormy Storm Virtual Reality Headset (~1.3, 5 month old price)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19590390 (HR)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18859674 (VRH)

Sold for Smoking Fez (~1)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18557514 (Fez)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19151455 (HR)

Sold alongside a Bubbling Bonk Boy (~2.8, year old price) for a Green Energy Rather Festive Tree (~4.4, 5 month old price)

I'm not entirely sure how to apply overpay to this sale but everything is outdated so I'm not even going to bother trying. This doesn't look like an outlier at least.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19340662 (Tree)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19460522 (Bonk and HR)