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3 in existence, I bought and sold mine within a week.
Bought for 35 keys (advertised as a quickbuyer so this is an outlier): http://puu.sh/8BxtS.png
Sold for 28 keys + 1 bud (I advertised it as being quicksold, personally I think the hat may be valued more): http://puu.sh/8Bxma.png
Only one on outpost, unsold for 3.33 buds: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19575402
Other previous outpost trades with zero offers on them:
Mine: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19606690#latest
Previous hat owner: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19547862
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19549871
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19605991
He traded the a Phosphorous Baker Boy (currently valued at 2.8, at the time was closer to 3) for the softcap + some sweets (unsure how much, likely around 0.33 of a bud)
Sorry for the lack of proof but the two trades I've tracked down that occurred this month seem to support this range. This is my first price suggestion, lemme know if I've done anything wrong.
Where does your range come from?
sold mine for 2.4, previous owner traded his for roughly 2.8
How did you get the value of the phosphorus baker boy? The price is Outdated and is not close to 2.8
The price on April 30th was 3 buds, on May 1st it was 2.6-3 buds. The trade occurred then. 5 days is nowhere near outdated, feel free to check for yourself.
Oops my bad. I was looking at sulphosohorus. Upvote from me :P
it seems like the sweets were 0.2, which would put the second sale at ~2.5-2.6. Your sale is also close to 2.6 with buds at 18 keys. So this is probably close