Suggestion: Mann Co. Supply Crate Key at 7.66–7.77 ref

Upvote. Range is correct from my experience in the past week (as I just started buying and selling keys). 7.77 is almost an instant sell, some bots are now buying at 7.88. However, you can still buy keys at 7.66 fairly easily.

upvote, I just sold a key for 8 ref

For all I know there might not be any mods right now so i'm adding this for a clean suggestion and so mods won't have too hide as much spam.

Words of the mods:

Please stay on topic regarding the suggestion. What is relevant here are; personal experiences on the key trades, additional proof, issues with the provided proof, counterproof against suggested range, and thoughts on what range is most appropriate based on these factors. Community opinion on these matters is extremely important and off-topic matters distract from them severely.

In order to try to keep discussion on-topic, spam and unnecessary off-topic discussion (including discussion of the broader economy) will be hidden. Abuse and rudeness will not be tolerated. For discussions on the economy and other tangential topics, we recommend the forums; http://forums.backpack.tf/

For discussion on keys in regards to the impact on the economy, this topic in particular is recommended; http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6090-the-one-and-only-key-price-topic/

For concerns about how the site is treating comments in key suggestions, feel free to start a topic in the following forum; http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/forum/20-general-website-discussions/

These rules and guidelines apply to all key suggestions, past and present. In order to reduce potential confusion, the mod team is posting this summary in order to help bring attention to—and remind users of—these policies.

Please wait for a mod to post this--while it is nice that you want to help, it doesn't carry as much weight if someone without official power posts it

I was actually going to ask you in the forums since you were the only one online, but you went offline all of a sudden. Sorry.

Close this I guess and let you post it again here?

Too late now. I'll let it go this time, but please don't do it again in the future.

Will do.

Oh I wonder why -_-

Because warning you on the last one didn't have a positive effect, and I learned my lesson.

Isn't there the 7 day cooldown or something? ^^ I guess by the time this would probably be accepted, it'd have passed 7 days.

3 days cooldown for keys not 7 days :P

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2620-key-cooldown-guidelines-read-before-making-key-suggestions/

lol, my bad :3

Wait, so did they change it? Last time I checked it was a week, or was it always 3 days...

Anyways, proof is great, I'm gonna upvote this.

I thought the cooldown was only a day ;-;.

Your buyer at 7.88 isn't actually buying for 7.88.

I could of sworn he/she was buying for 7.88. Guess i'll just remove it. Thanks

At this moment I've got no problem buying them for 7.55 ref each.

This is me buying at least 28 keys since the last suggestion: http://i.imgur.com/voD1KXB.png

My trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19227238#latest

With the massive amount of buyers at 7.66 and a few at 7.77, I think it's fair to say that your sales appear to be outliers.

I just woke up and bought another one: http://i.imgur.com/UiO1y5k.png (also found one more from yesterday). At this moment I don't really feel like an outlier. I'm guessing this price will be accurate in a few days anyway, but I don't got any problems buying them for 7.55 ref at this moment. Also, if it was just 1 key I would consider it an outlier too, but it are a considerable amount of keys imo.

http://i.imgur.com/VHzn85f.png - 4 more

It's hard to say what is an outlier and what isn't. There are hundreds and hundreds of key trades. If the suggestion shows even 100 links, that's still only a small fraction of the total key trades. If someone really tried, I'm sure they could find 100 links of sales at 7.55 and 100 links of sales at even 8 ref. It's really hard to evaluate keys.

If anything, I would say ease of buying, selling at a certain time point is probably the easier way to evaluate keys since going by volume just isn't feasible.

I have shown people selling/sold keys for 7.55, but is outnumbered for 7.66.

People selling keys too 7.55 buyers still happen, but with 7.66 buyers outnumbering 7.55. I would consider this an outlier.

And your premium. Every 30 minutes you can get a chance to get a seller, while most buyers are not premium, and you are very active Considering every day you have a +rep or Sent offer comment :P

Judging by the amount of buyers/sales at 7.66 and somewhat low amount of buyers/sale at 7.77, 7.66 flat may possibly work better. I dunno, I'm just going to wait and see what others who aren't complaining about the high prices have to say.

The bots are all i ever see whizzing past on the classifieds, 7.88 each they say. Fucking reslling bots are doing me in, and the drop in soda + dead ringer is making it harder to break even when unboxing. While I hate bots cant we have like a month break as we did after halloween? (7 ref i think). Anyways proof looks fine, upboating and here comes 8 ref

Opened a trade here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19697509#latest

And within 35 minutes, I sold 6 keys.

5 here: http://puu.sh/8FEo4.png

Then 1 here: http://puu.sh/8FEDz.png

7.55 is a quicksell and then some, upvote.

You didn't support your high-end as much as your low-end. I can help you with that :)

Buyers and sellers for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19533678[/url] - buys for 7.77 (bot)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19468555[/url] - buys for 7.77 (bot?)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19655861[/url] - buys for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19685065[/url] - buys for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17223494[/url] - buys for 7.77 (bot)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19650668[/url] - buys for 7.77 (bot)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19622444[/url] - buys for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18972661[/url] - buys for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18425590[/url] - buys for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19391863[/url] - buys for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19065757[/url] - sells for 7.77 (bot)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18881766[/url] - sells for 7.77 (bot)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19494491[/url] - sells for 7.77 (bot)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18517593[/url] - sells for 7.77 (buys for 7.66, bot)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19526702[/url] - sells for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19665765[/url] - sells for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19696652[/url] - sells for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19532802[/url] - sells for 7.77

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19698499[/url] - sells for 7.77 (almost out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19576831[/url] - sells for 7.77 (buys for 7.66, out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19457409[/url] - sells for 7.77 (buys for 7.66, out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16228539[/url] - sells for 7.77 (buys for 7.66, out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19692947[/url] - sells for 7.77 (buys for 7.66, out of stock everything)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19432683[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19037984[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19118880[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19196317[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19683168[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19557139[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19005753[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock, sold 16 within a month)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19507503[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19622517[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19039157[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19674253[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19192162[/url] - sells for 7.77 (out of stock)

Btw sorry if any duplicates I tried to avoid them

Thank you very much good sir :).

Yes, the second link is a bot -- my bot. It isn't 24/7 because I don't know how to do that. :c

I hope you do regret it xD

Both of you guys forgot to mention scrap.tf is buying for 7.77 too. With both your guys combined proof, I'm upvoting

you shouldn't be upvoting because of speculation, should choose your vote based on proof/current market

no i am not upvoting because speculation. i saw so many people selling it for 7.88 and sold quick.

sorry if i choose wrong expression for the voting. i see it myself bot buying it for 7.77 ref. really sorry man

Downvoting for not enough proof. o3o

he has a "fair" (quite a bit I'd say) amount, and there's been some supporting evidence provided on top of that by other(s)

Eh, this suggestion just doesn't really sell me. To me the only thing keys are good for is unboxing. Most of the time in unboxing you get poopy, so I don't value keys that much. Heck, I sell them for 7 ref. Let's not forget about the trades that don't happen on outpost. I would like to see more sources than just outpost. I can also downvote because of improper cooldown time. o3o

nice try on the cooldown time http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2620-key-cooldown-guidelines-read-before-making-key-suggestions/

"Do not suggest a new price range for keys until 3 days have passed since the last one"

they're usefulness in your opinion isn't what sets the market price, people are willing to buy at higher prices, thus the noted price on bptf goes up to reflect that.

[and heck, add me, I'll bloody buy one for 7ref]

Sigh.

Read the bottom part on what I said. Hopefully you get why the keys are going up.

P.S. What about we don't use those kind of faces :P

I was going to give you some counter-proof but my Mac decided to be stupid and cleared all my work D:

I also learned I couldn't make certain faces, what a cruel world. ;-;

I'm not entirely sure what you meant by "Read the bottom part on what I said" o3o

Oh come on why am I being disliked for this comment?

Scrap.tf

http://bazaar.tf/trade/705900

Bots buying keys at 7.77,Selling keys for 8 Ref.

Bots have alot more power when it comes to buying simply because of their convinience.

They are -always- awake, and wont try to haggle you down to get more from you.

I can look for more,but OP seems to have it taken are off already.

(ZOMFG 8 REF? HOLY SH*T)

If i could just track Scrap.tf & Shopbot's sales with 8 ref,i'd shove it all here as additional proof.

Upvote.

(btw,if BP.TF was fully insistent on raising prices,then they'd skip it instantly to 7.77 Ref/only the highest ranges everytime,not have 7.66 ref/lower ranges included in the range. Its quite reserved & just reflets what is being bought..even if its abit slow thanks to the Key CDs. Bp.TF Actually -slows- the rise of keys. If someone cares to notice,7ref in BP.tf was stuck but others were sellling it for 7.33/7.44 already at that time.So,yeah,thats why its like a dam releasing water with how quick the key-price rise is,its juts catching up)

It looks like most people are selling for 7.77-7.88 right now

You right, u can bought it for 7.88 and sell for 7.77!

Hey I'm in this list<3

I think it's fine like it's now. Maybe make it 7.66 instead of 7.61. but 7.77 is too much

Opinions don't work on the market, proof does

I thought community opinion was "extremely" important

If the opinions does nothing so what the point of commenting then..... Is it even possible to "prove" if the price should go up or down. I don't get it. I'm serious HOW am I supposed to prove if it's price should or shouldn't rise? What, just find some noob and show "player xxxx is selling a key for 1 ref so the price should be 1 ref" or find a scammer and say "player yyyyyy is selling a key for 10 ref so keys should worth 10 ref"?! It's impossible to prove prices at all! Let's just sell keys for 10000 ref and end it now!!!

Nope,1 sale doesn't determine the price of a key

You weren't actually supposed to answer it..... The real question was HOW to prove it. Because I personally can easily fake a bunch of trades and sell keys for 10 ref and then say "Look there are 100 trades that are selling keys for 10 ref so keys should worth 10 ref". These "proofs" doesn't really prove anything. What's wrong with people saying "yes" or "no"? Proofs can be fake (I don't say they are but they CAN) + There's a bunch of scammers and just because there's a lot of scammers who are selling it for more doesn't mean it should worth more

Btw, if the price will go up by 1 scrap each week, soon keys will actually cost 10 ref. If the prices will stop going up maybe those "proofs" will all show that 7.66 ref is a good price!

I approve of you :D

Finally someone who agrees with me and not commenting random shit (and making me feel bad and never commenting on price changing - just voting "yes" or "no" if anything and not commenting -_-)

Of course I get disliked for thinking differently :T

Bots will always buy below the price and sell above the price. I hate re-selling bots..

From someone with 85 of them, upvote.

It's stupidly hard to get any for under 7.66, or even at that price.

7.77 is a much better range, 7.55 aint happenin and 7.66 is annoyingly hard to get

7.66 still happens. Compared too 7.55, it's pretty much barren.

Many people are blindly following backpack prices.

That's why 7.55 and 7.66 still happens

http://i.imgur.com/qkJLAqh.png - 11 keys sold today at 7.55 ref. 7.55 ref is still happening you know. Just not alot.

Actually, the economy isn't being ruined, it's being appropriately adjusted. There are many valid reasons for the raise of keys. People raising prices is a good one, the increase in ref supply is another. If keys were 2 ref now, it would be mayhem. Bp.tf doesn't control the market, the market controls the market. So if there are a lot of buyers and sellers for a higher price, then the price must be raised.

^^^^^ "Adjusted"

Even if it was to go too 7 ref only. Everything will be in chaos.

I'm sure that was when you could idle for keys they went to I think 5 ref(wasn't trading at the time) when valve fixed it

If we stick to the price proofs rather than extraneous comments....Putting together the initial proof plus provided extras, the following points become clear:

The majority of key buyers are for 7.66. Some are below, some are above - the weighted average is *microscopically* lower than 7.66.

The plurality of key sellers is also for 7.66. Here the weighted average is definitely higher - probably not all the way to 7.77, but then there are 7.88 and 8 counting more heavily than the 7.55s.

This, while surprising, can be explained by the large group of people who do not use bots to buy keys (exactly for the reason that they sell for higher), and also by the under-reported number of trades on the trade servers rather than through outpost.

Putting this together, the given range is reasonable - but on the other hand, 7.66 flat would also be reasonable. Never mind whether it will no longer be reasonable in just a few more days. For now this jump is "arguably" premature, though definitely not wrong outright...but there is enough wiggle room that I feel this can be down-voted with a clean conscience.

i buy keys at 8 refined because i hate other metal

http://scrap.tf/keys Even scrap.tf pays 7.77 ref each and sells for 8 ref.

http://i64.photobucket.com/albums/h184/Lavendertf2/ScraptfKeys_zps502d8dd0.png They have 183 keys in stock, from 17 in only two days.

That bazaar bot is... Bizarre.

1) Last key suggestion (my suggestion) passed and I didn't have any keys at the time, let alone sell/buy any.

2) This has been mentioned countless times. The market sells for higher prices to make profit. If the whole of the market is selling for a raised price, then the base price (bp.tf prices) should match it.

3) What happened to when gas was less than $2? Its called supply and demand ([url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand[/url])

i put a key on outpost for 7.77 and got 3 adds within a minute

yeah

managed to sell a key in under 2 hours for 8.66 (listed it for 8, got 5.33 ref + ToD ticket which i QS for 3.33)

somehow managed to buy a key for 7.66 that was listed seconds before I pounced on it.

keys are rising fast, and the only people who don't like it are the ones who can't get keys.

Yeah..the normal people right..The people that dont want to invest in a game and they hate seeing how is this game going down thanks to you p2p..

almost impossible to find sellers @ 7.66-7.77 too. I had o buy for 7.88 // upvote

Really? A found quite a few selling for 7.55. o3o

Upvote can't find sellers for 7.66 or 7.77.

I find sellers for 7.55-7.77 pretty commonly o3o

I guess all those strange Pocket Pistols appeared by magic, then.

And it's happening because, quite frankly, people are willing to pay these for keys. Look at my backpack history over the past 6 months. 6 months ago, I could maybe afford 1 key if I sold everything in my backpack, but I didn't QQ about it. I got into trading and now I can unbox if I so choose. I don't because, as a poker player, I don't like my odds of unboxing such a small amount of crates that I could afford to unbox. Maybe one day, I will, just to test the unusual drop rate, but that day is a long way off.

I can quicksell my keys to a bot for 7.77, which is why I value them at that when providing change. Honestly, I feel that key prices are always behind the market and even when this passes, they're still going to be behind.

Upvote.

Heck, even scrap.tf is buying for 7.77! This is a definite upvote.

Upvoted, solid proof and I can only get keys at 7.66/7.77. We all knew this was going to happen, aargh why don't they go down >.<

Yep,just how I said ;)

I like dis guy o3o

Yeah, uh... first of all, traders have been selling at 7.88 for a while now. Backpack.tf is always behind the market. The prices have and will increased regardless of what backpack.tf does.

And you got warned because your comment had nothing to do with the suggestion, proof, or anything along those lines. Here's an idea: Before participating in a discussion area, why don't you read the rules for said discussion area? What a concept!

Reading is hard ;-;

Yeah,so next time,I will just write "staying negative" just to make it to do something with that suggestion...

Keys aren't going to go down much. Proof looks solid, price range makes sense.

Upvote.

I bought 1 For 8 Refined. UpVote

The price of keys rising is what's stopping myself from buying them anymore XD. It's mainly because of the steam community market allowing anyone to sell a key instantly for around $2.00 but I use other methods to trade my items to cash. I guess that it may be time that metal will soon be completly worthless due to the fact that almost everything now is marketable on the market :(

But anyways, lots of good proof and you make your point valid. It'll be impossible to find a reason to downvote.

Upvote!

Well keys will technically always go up in price unless there is a sale. Because there is constantly more weps in the game which = more ref. The more ref the cheaper ref is the cheaper ref is the more keys need to cost to meet the 2.50 price.

Not much to say here as the votes and proof speak for themselves.

Cooldown rules remain in effect: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2620-key-cooldown-guidelines-read-before-making-key-suggestions/