well at least i didn't go for 1.2-1.4 like i was originally considering. resuggest, thanks to polar for the tip. 6 months old price, 3 on the market.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19073113

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19106364

terror bolted birdcage, 1.4 after overpay

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18602763

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18575309

sold for an orb fire private eye, 1.2 after overpay.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19128137

disco steel shako, 1.5 after overpay.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18741330

offered a bubbling baker boy + 5 keys pure, 1.7 after overpay.

all the other sales are for unpriced/outdated hats. no higher valid offers on outpost, buyouts are ~2 buds and one at 1.7 unsold for a month. 1.7 as the high end because it sold for a stormy brigade only a smidge out of date which would be 1.7 with overpay, and because of the baker + keys offer. calling 1.2 an outlier for now on polar's advice.