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Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19706782 - 13 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19459434 - Added a Stormy Helmet for a DP Dapper = 13 keys (No overpay on dapper since it was offered on)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18757311 - 11 keys + 3 keys in sweets = 14 keys (Mini-outlier)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19134323
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070922792?time=1397113200 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070922792?time=1397199600
12-13 keys? Not sure tbh. I'll go with 13 due to the uncertainty.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001720882?time=1398927600 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198001720882?time=1399273200
~13 keys
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074340617?time=1397804400 ---> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198074340617?time=1397890800
Added a Bills for a Bud = 13 keys (Probably traded it for the Gonzilla & perhaps Kringle afterwards)
13 keys seems to be the most commonly traded for point.
Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3
How is 1 key difference a mini outlier? Especially since 14 is in the current range. New range should be 13-14 not 13 flat imo. <3 you Necro :P
5 at 13, 1 at 14? Eh. 13 seems to be better tbh.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19703760 - 11 key B/O (a bit young)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19754654 - 12 key B/O (^)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19763438 - 13 key B/O
Looks to me like 12-14 is fine more like it, depends on how quickly the 12 key sellers sells. Also I agree 13 is definitely the most traded price, but 14 is possible and it looks like you can get it at ~12. Neutral for now to see how the open trades go (still think 14 is valid, you could argue overpay in the sweets though).