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i think that lighting effect is not that bright ;)
Proofs:-
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19889214 ---for 5 buds unsold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18966976 -----for 4.5 buds unsold
http://i.imgur.com/wuCz3lb.png ---sold for unpure stuff for just 4.8 buds
4.5 unsold is 50+ days old, one sold also supports new range - upvote.
the effect o the stout is vivid and on the tree is stormy
Selling is not the same as sold, seeing as u only have one sale this wouldn't be enough proof.
read the guide again
i think the sellers are selling for 4.5 which is going unsold and the hat is 5.5 so it is clear it needs a drop