Price Suggestion
~57.22 ref
Unique Mann Co. Supply Crate Key
1758 votes up
1055 votes down
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Comments

Resuggesting with a range after looking at some of the counter proof and feedback provided by the community.


Buyers for 7.77:


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19614543

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19781855

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19905689

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19644546

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19850219

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19806541

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19305460

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19870978

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19770465

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908493

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18951325

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19880676

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19861738

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19877135

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19798119

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19880403

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19894918

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19896268

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19779621

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19770009

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19880974

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909611

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19462109

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19830991

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19702931

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19733406

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19510852

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19269657


Buyers for 7.88:


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19323462

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18872021

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19578626

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19665689

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18259602

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19669629

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19794473

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19816981

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19746807

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19785331

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19857137

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19871345

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19816740

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19784060

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19876882

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19797459

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19412570

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19861530

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19769699

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19861638

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19891794

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19878677

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19776762

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19729090

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909972

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19854378

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19596434

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19858198


Buyers for 8.00:


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19772328

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19821508

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19874261

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19775804

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910047

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19885051

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19894124

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19901108

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18496564

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19723131

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19400217

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19177766

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19752297

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19689001

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19862370

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19849902

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19808411

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19494527

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909637

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19340870

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19805868

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910303

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19843503

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19898766

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18211496

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19830146

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19900898

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18541513

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19674096

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19894329

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19642172

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19378119

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19770347

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19801126

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19395492

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910330

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19439430

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18847443

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19786212

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19896717

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18116583

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19609456

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19860599

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18503294

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19861717

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910417

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19753177

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18847480

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19882086

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19350586

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910392

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19222928

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910310

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19093014

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19878114

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908322

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19731046

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19872579

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19816987

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19880640

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19857229

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910089

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19905582

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19552408

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19687133

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19841459

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19877943

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19687815


Buyers for 8.11:


http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19655861

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18410583

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19213173

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19652287

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19749120

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18498026

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19639827

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19845112

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19651428

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19888448

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19740494

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19902617

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909416


Buyers at 8.11 contributed by Kejsumaru™:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18783391

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19897614

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17088431

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18810323

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13818773

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15454996

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19533678

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19882917

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19898914

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16463186

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19065757

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18592261

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19586962

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909008

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19856117

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19768140

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19795457

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15889190

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19791090

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19805031

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19801803

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19795681

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18668725

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19890908

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19742378

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19906181

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19899753

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19904635

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19869723

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15754901

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19736930

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19821378

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18400775

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18875629

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16477450

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13729794

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19881691

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19876521

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19868736

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19795239


Solds:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909848 7.77

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909490 7.77

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910429 7.88

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909527 7.88

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908994 7.88

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909884 Instantly got 2 offers for 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909597 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909438 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909298 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909118 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909071 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908949 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908469 Possibly mass seller at 8, closed within a bump

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908461 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908156 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19907868 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910949 8.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19910731 8.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908811 8.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19907795 8.11

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19908277 8.22

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19909303 8.33


Supporting proof, counter proof, and constructive critism is greatly appreciated.

    your "solds" really SOLD it for me :)))


    anything under 8 ref right now seems like a quick sell

        People will sell keys at their own prices regardless of what backpack.tf values them at. The only thing an inaccurate value will accomplish is creating a feeling of confusion amongst users.

          i disagree, people are depending on bp.tf values a lot. people dont know how much what cost or should cost, they in majority check bp.tf prices.

            This.


            From January to the middle of February, keys were listed here at 7 Ref. If you went basically anywhere, people considered Keys as 7.33 for much of that time. But, with the lack of constant updates, the price stalled at 7.33. Then the price was updated again and we're back to good old spiral.


            It's worth noting that since Bp.tf had a key price (July 2012) there have been about 5 months of time where the price was stable. 3.5 of which was right at the beginning of said time period when people were just starting to come to the site.

              Agree. But backpack.tf haven't any intention to stop it, and they know that. Always said: "We think about this problem, and wanted some solutions", but it's a lie. The things are like 2013, or 2012. Bp.tf don't stop, and wont stop anymore. The mods have so many power, and if they stop the Key suggestions, they will lose some power here, and some dollars too.


              One time more, people like RedParadox show what they are very easy to trick, and they don't know at all what's happening at the outpost.


              PS: I wont vote on this suggestion.

                  That's what i wrote in my key topic in the forums in the website suggestion for a longer key cooldown. Maybe take a look and bring some arguments so we'll have a longer cooldown someday

                      I feel like bp.tf could silence everyone who think they're forcing keys up if they just didn't list a price for a month or even just half a month, then updated the price again. People say things like "but then new players would lack information", but OP has all the information you could need.


                      I am 100% sure it won't happen, but I think it's really the only way to stop people from complaining. People does include myself, I do think bp.tf plays a role in Keys rising. They didn't force Keys up, but they made it happen faster, imo. But, aside from that, a longer cooldown is probably the best we'd be able to get. I dont really use the forums though.

                        as i said, pls bring that up in my forum topic, longer cooldown really is needed

                  I agree 100%! I run trade servers and all i see or hear anymore is, check bp.tf, this is what there going for on bp.tf or "one sec !pc keys".

                    No one is chaining you to these prices. If you believe you can sell your item at a different price, go right ahead. Backpack.tf is a guideline, not set-in-stone prices.

                      Well backpack.tf is MEANT to be a guidline but in reality it's not is it? People take it as the Bible of TF2 Trading. If you try and sell a craft hat for 3 ref do you think you're going to sell it? No, people will just say "well bp.tf says 1.33 ref so trying to scam me noob.".


                      Just my 2 cents...

                        Well, blame the people who misuse it.

                    it wud be 100x easier to type in backpack.tf in browser and see on the homepage price r ather than use ur own brain ;)

                    Okey guys, you heard. Stop making suggestions. Because Brian griffin demands it. You know, he is the King of Fortressland.

                    I dislike this constant key inflation.

                    Every time the key value goes up traders move there prices up by a little above it again. Buying a little more expensive and selling a little more expensive. At this rate it will just keep climbing for good or ill.

                    Anyways I've sold several keys at 8 refined recently and have received an invite or trade offer within minutes.

                      upscore. dont know why you get -1 score on that so much true post.

                        Some people don't like to see some things as true . Still the market will live on whether a key is worth 2 refined or 20.

                          True dat, I really agree, when it was 7.55-7.66 I couldn't even buy a key at 7.66.

                        Upvote people need to realise this.

                          just an fyi, people have known this is why keys are inflating for a long time now

                            Indeed. I'm attempting to maintain a YT gaming channel and if it would get like seriously popular and I'd start to earn an excessive amount of money, I'd have my brother set up a bot that would sell keys for at least 1 ref lower than BP.tf, and buys at the same price as BP.tf. It would check histories of items in the trade window so that if the bot is in the history, it won't accept the key. And I could perhaps even have my brother use the Steam API to automatically ban people from using the bot if they sell the keys they got for above the current BP.tf price.

                              This could have been worded better, but I agree. People overprice keys, and that shouldnt constitute a price raise because then people will overprice more. The point of backpack.tf (As stated by the website) is to reflect and provide guidelines for prices... NOT DETERMINE THEM.

                            vote up, much proof such solds. :)

                              Do not tell me you have validated all of those links in the 5 minutes it has been up.

                              I would like to remind the community to please stay on topic regarding the suggestion. What is relevant here are; personal experiences on the key trades, additional proof, issues with the provided proof, counterproof against suggested range, and thoughts on what range is most appropriate based on these factors. Community opinion on these matters is extremely important and off-topic matters distract from them severely.


                              In order to try to keep discussion on-topic, spam and unnecessary off-topic discussion (including discussion of the broader economy) will be hidden. Abuse and rudeness will not be tolerated. For discussions on the economy and other tangential topics, we recommend the forums; http://forums.backpack.tf/


                              For discussion on keys in regards to the impact on the economy, this topic in particular is recommended; http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/6090-the-one-and-only-key-price-topic/


                              For concerns about how the site is treating comments in key suggestions, feel free to start a topic in the following forum; http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/forum/20-general-website-discussions/


                              These rules and guidelines apply to all key suggestions, past and present. In order to reduce potential confusion, the mod team is posting this summary in order to help bring attention to—and remind users of—these policies.

                                    Is it just me, or are around 60% of the 8.11 buyers Bots?

                                    Besides that, the proof looks pretty plentiful. I got 9 adds when I was selling a key for 7.88. Upvote from me.

                                      With bots is extremely easy take control on the outpost. A group of people can handle it with some bots.


                                      Bots should be prohibited for ANY suggestion.

                                        Yes!


                                        If warehouse decided to jack their prices up to 10 ref per key, would we use that as proof of the price? No, it's clearly just a bot-owner trying to scrape more profit out of their site. Same with outpost bots.


                                        Bots should NOT under any circumstance be considered as proof of a price. The appeal of bots is to be able to make a quick deal (not have to wait for a trader to come online), so they often cost a bit more then the going price.

                                      Seems that most bots sell for 8.22

                                        Thanks for giving me credit :)

                                        Looks great, you have my upvote :) Good luck!

                                          Like 5 days ago i had trouble finding sellers at 7.88 Ref, even 8 ref was hard :P. Eventually bought some at 8 ref.


                                          7.77 and 7.88 are pretty much impossible to find and sell within 40 seconds. I agree, they should be taken off the range. Upvote. :p :'c

                                            isn't cool down a thing? other than that there was good proof but that's how things things always go

                                              Cool down is 3 days, and the 3 days has passed.

                                                I originally thought the cooldown was 1 week, but I guess that's only for suggestions that don't change it by a certain amount.

                                                  That's possible. It might be a week in that case, or maybe for some other item (buds maybe, at some interval).

                                                    A 1 week cooldown only applies when the change is 1 scrap or less.

                                                      So, in theory that promotes more rapid increases, as apposed to the slow climb after 4 ref. I checked about 11 days ago at the key price, checked again, 5 scrap? Really?

                                                    trade was shut down by staff for the user/trade ad being a "troll"


                                                    regardless, it's also massively outdated so...

                                                      I've sold keys near instantly at 8 refined and traders whom I've traded (They had to get change) have had the same experiences.

                                                      An unhappy upvote from me

                                                          True and people will sell them for 10.11,10.22 and 10.33 and then we'll be like forget this. I'll get mine off the market.

                                                            Keys being 10 ref still equates to them being 2.5$ max price. Keys can be 20 ref and keys will still be max 2.5$ the price of ref doesnt change the value of keys at all.

                                                              then refined metals would be like 0.2$

                                                            After the price has raised once again. Bots and traders will go 2 - 10% higher price.


                                                            So yeah, people will be selling for 8.66 - 9 after this is accepted.

                                                              +100

                                                              that's the reason we got it over and over again

                                                                And yeah, keys are raising even though bots and traders are fast enough to expect this. And after 3 days cooldown. A vote for 8.33 - 8.66 will come out. (mr predictor) i very good

                                                              Yes, what point are you trying to make?

                                                                  If you know anything about economics, you would know that you don't just make something worth less.

                                                                      Like I said, you don't just change the value of a currency.

                                                                        Backpack.tf just confuses me to no end when it comes to people coming up with prices.

                                                                          Then i invite you to use other sources of key pricing if you dont like our prices.

                                                                          http://tf2finance.com/keys/

                                                                          Is probably the most popular and it's automated.


                                                                          Fact is you need prexisting proof to make a suggestion, ie price has already long changed.

                                                                          People buy it for high because they believe it will continually rise. If it stays at a firm 8, then watch all the trades up there change prices almost instantly.

                                                                            The market is centered around supply and demand

                                                                            You can't stop the inflation for keys

                                                                            The buds and the ref will slowly fall

                                                                            THAT IS THE WAY IT WORKS

                                                                            hope there would not be a major economy crash in TF2

                                                                            cuz that be fail

                                                                            I agree with you RedParadox, if people really made refined metal $0.01 each and sold at that price, those 1.33 hats would be like worthless and basically crates and unique weapons would be 2cheap2sell.

                                                                  Scrap.tf anyone? Easy sell for 8 refined and easy buy for 8.11

                                                                    easy buy... what is easy buy? that you are able to buy it for some price? what if bots would sell it now for 10 refs. it would be easy to buy it too, doesnt it? easy buy, for higher price than its now its no argument imho. it would matter only if it would be in lesser pirce than it is now easily to get.

                                                                    Something doesn't feel right about this suggestion to me. I don't know what it is so I'm staying neutral for now.

                                                                      Might as well give some counter-proof. At least I can say I tried


                                                                      http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19441262


                                                                      I've sold 4 keys .-.

                                                                        Only after 3 weeks, also 1 link isn't enough to disprove 100+ links.

                                                                          I can say I tried. I tried to search for people selling for lower but it just wasn't happening bro. Also, you have NO IDEA how many adds I've gotten asking for keys. Even when I clearly say I'm out of stock.

                                                                            That abundance of adds is more a sign that you are selling too low.

                                                                              Perhaps. Maybe it's because I don't value keys as much as everyone else. Maybe I'm just sick and tired of people scrambling around to make any profit they can. Maybe it's because I don't care about profit when it comes to keys. Or maybe I'm just tired because it's 6 in the morning.

                                                                                Or maybe this is all a bad dream, we'll wake up sometime after end of the line update and keys will be 5 ref. Refined will be 40 cents, and buds will be 23 keys. Just maybe it's a dream.

                                                                                  Yeah, maybe.

                                                                                Bought for low, sold for low.

                                                                                http://imgur.com/NaIEImE

                                                                          You can only buy keys now a days for 8 Ref and up. Noone sells for under 8 Ref even on the BP.TF selling lists. 8 REF Keys get bought fast too.

                                                                            disagree again. some people are selling keys for less than 8 ref.

                                                                            http://i60.tinypic.com/vglr8g.jpg

                                                                              Ya, some people but no most, as Sprux said, 8 ref keys get bought fast which is true. I went to tf2outpost and the best I can get from there are bots at 8.11, as for other people, 8.22 and above mostly but, as you said, you can find some at 8 or even below. However we are talking about the market as a whole not just ONE person like what you've given. Nevertheless I think at least you tried which is good.

                                                                                that was just example, against statement, no one sells it under 8 ref. i agree with 8 ref, but not sure if 8.11 should be in range.

                                                                                  Well you said some but it sure is one for now, and I can assure you at 8.11 or even higher should be in the range. Keys are just constantly rising right now, I remember a few months back in January my friends were checking here, backpack.tf and discussing about how keys are 5.66 ref and stuff. This constant inflation... To check if what I'm saying is true, just go to any trading site and search for people selling keys at 8 ref, the answer is clear: there isn't a lot, now you can get cheapest 8.11 some people even do 8.33 and up to 9 ref (-.-). Also, the link you gave was probably a quicksell as bots will buy for at least 8 ref.

                                                                                    I do apologize for my existence. I wasn't spamming and I'm not really sure why would I need an economics class. As far as I know Mann.co store will not change the price of a key and metal ratio is no about to change any time soon.

                                                                                    oh and thank you for your kind respond

                                                                                      I'm waiting for the crash.

                                                                                        Realize that keys are 2.5$ and metal is free, you play you get. Too many people expect to be able to just make money easily, people have been waiting for the "crash" ever since keys went to 2.66 ref.

                                                                                          Someone doesnt buy keys off of paypal

                                                                                            Im referring to keys as 2.5 as it's the max price keys will ever be, price of keys via paypal changes around from seller to seller and not to mention it's closing in on the price of keys from the store slowly

                                                                                    There's just no stopping this, is it? xD


                                                                                    I believe who's controlling the key market are the bots, who are constantly buying keys for 1-2 scrap higher than bp.tf price, and as such put that same price as a quicksell because there are just SO. MANY. BOTS. Also, you might not believe me but it was somewhat hard to find a key at 8.11 (although very possible).

                                                                                        60% at last suggestion you made - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/537bf1584cd7b8d9198b473f


                                                                                        I would assume this one got more with the proof, however - 8ref seem too be more common traded.

                                                                                        Guess most people thought it'd be nice with a small "pause" at the 8ref mark, but it doesn't seem like it from a buying perspective.


                                                                                        Personally I'm buying keys at 8.11 from scrap.tf, and that's not an easy/quick method to get keys-- a range is probably needed here, the question is if the 8ref sales/buyers is the most traded price at moment or if it's spread out in a fairly decent amount.


                                                                                        ~neutral until more sales has been provided by OP.

                                                                                          I'm not sure what you mean, I already have a range. Do you mean a different range?

                                                                                            Nah this one is most likely more accurate, but just said "probably" - because more proof should be provided when it comes to the most common traded price. Or if it's spread out enough, this range should be enough.

                                                                                          Sufficient proof so I will upvote.

                                                                                              Wut is the sudden cause of increase of keys? There is technically a infinity supply of keys do why?

                                                                                                Mass inflation of ref makes them gradually lower in value therefore making it cost more ref to buy a key.

                                                                                                  Shouldn't it also cost more ref to buy other items? Like craft hats? If the inflation is so bad I'm sure prices would rise.

                                                                                                    Huh, I have no idea.

                                                                                                      I guess the disadvantage of community voted prices is that it doesn't automatically update. I'm sure there are too many items that run on ref currency to hold a vote on to raise them. Did I find a hole in the system? :O

                                                                                                        In terms of inflation, possibly. I don't have outstanding knowledge of economics, so perhaps someone could clear this up for me.

                                                                                                          Yeah, I demand answers! And a cookie for pointing this out! :3

                                                                                                            The hat market is not the same thing.

                                                                                                            Hats can be crafted, bought from the Steam store or through random drops.

                                                                                                            Hats are very expensive on the Steam store so I doubt many buy them there.

                                                                                                            What is left is crafting and random drops.


                                                                                                            Now since hats can be had by random drops just by playing means hats can be gotten for free.

                                                                                                            To craft a hat via metal requires 3 ref, which means if all hats would go above 3 ref in value then it would be cheaper just crafting hats with ref and trading hat for hat. That means hats can not go above 3 ref in value.


                                                                                                            Then why 1.33 ref? And why is it stable there?

                                                                                                            My theory is that scrap.tf created that price as a golden standard. scrap.tf have been selling hats at 1.33 ref for a long time, remember what happened when genuine hats got lowered on scrap.tf to 1.22 ref, all hell broke out and genuine hats went down to 1.22 ref.


                                                                                                            Look at scrap.tf as a government, that guarntees the market, "if nobody wants your craft hat we will always buy it for 1.33 ref". That means any private business trying to buy hats for example 0.33 ref will fail. This also explains why hats do not go up in value, because why pay 2.66 ref when the government (scrap.tf) provide the hats for 1.33 ref each.


                                                                                                            And last do not forget random hats are also added into the game every second, for free. Free items with unlimited supply tends to not go up in value. Why some hats are worth more is because they have a higher demand, people want to look classy in a certain hat.

                                                                                                              Thanks for the response. I've kind of thought scrap.tf as the controller of the market too. But what about the other items? All the festives, stranges, unique weapons. With all this scrap banking you'd think weapons would go up in price by now. Also who set the original price for keys and ref? I'm curious about that.

                                                                                                                That's a pretty good point. I was also wondering why everything else isn't rising, because to my knowledge, there aren't any massive (for example) strange trading sites out there.

                                                                                                                Soooo, no cookie?

                                                                                                              Oh btw, got a key for less than 7.44, can I has my chocolate bar?

                                                                                                              http://imgur.com/NaIEImE

                                                                                                    It's taken over a month for keys to rise by around 2 rec, so I would say; probably not.

                                                                                                      Not with this sudden increase. Hey valve, here's an idea, sell refined for 40 cents and buds for $37. It's genius.

                                                                                                        Good times, even keys at 2.33 were alright, but nowdays is just.. scratching my head and thinking "What's going on?", Oh well, more metal when buying keys from the store, and easy buys on all the stuff that were Expensive back in the '11s X3

                                                                                                            Actually...

                                                                                                            We're behind in key prices :#

                                                                                                            Bp.tf doesn't control the market. If we were to stop suggesting that the price in ref goes up, the market nonetheless would continue to rise, and bp.tf would be rendered an inaccurate pricing source.

                                                                                                            ~

                                                                                                            Let's say we rejected this suggestion, and kept the price here on bp.tf at ~8 ref.


                                                                                                            Well, people will continue to sell for more than 8 ref. Yes, it's for profit, but then, people will start buying those 8+ ref keys.

                                                                                                            Now people have bought keys for more than they're worth. So what do they do? Sell for more, because of profit.

                                                                                                            Now keys will no longer be found at 8 ref, because they all sold for, let's say, 8.11 ref, and those who bought them list and sell them for 8.22 ref. Because of the increase in sellers at 8.22 ref, people will start to snatch up 8.11 ref keys, and soon, there will be little, if not, no keys selling for 8.11. And the cycle continues.


                                                                                                            A week or two from now, everybody will be selling for 8.33+ ref. And bp.tf will still be here at 8 ref.


                                                                                                            We do not control the market. We simply fix the price according to the market. It's not like if all of a sudden keys were to be priced at 2.33 ref, people would start selling and buying for that amount. They would continue to increase their prices, and bp.tf would be considered outdated and incorrect.

                                                                                                            It's all a matter of supply and demand. It wouldn't make sense if keys were believed to be worth 7 ref when the market for keys is in the 8-8.11 ref zone.


                                                                                                            So unless you want bp.tf to lie about the price of the key, I suggest you stop complaining. Because either way, you'll more than likely never see a key on the market for less than bp.tf prices.


                                                                                                            inb4 this comment gets hundreds of dislikes because I actually explained this thoroughly, yet economic noobs are too stubborn to accept it

                                                                                                              I keep telling people that (maybe less in-depth), but people simply refuse to apply reasoning to anything.

                                                                                                                Don't worry, every key suggestion gets about a hundred of these STAHP RIESNG KEY PRIEC OMGG comments. ;p

                                                                                                                true, bp.tf is not making the prices rise, but it is accellerating it. if nobody had a set price that they knew other people would follow, they would sell for the same amount and buy at the same amount other people are selling at. eventually, the price would go up, but it would be slow and gradual and the rest of the economy would have a chance to catch up.


                                                                                                                and as to not get "warned"

                                                                                                                i disagree with any key price suggestion, but wont downvote it to be stubborn. neutral for eternity

                                                                                                                  Did you not read any of it at all?

                                                                                                                  "If we were to stop suggesting that the price in ref goes up, the market nonetheless would continue to rise"


                                                                                                                  "A week or two from now, everybody will be selling for 8.33+ ref. And bp.tf will still be here at 8 ref."


                                                                                                                  "It's not like if all of a sudden keys were to be priced at 2.33 ref, people would start selling and buying for that amount. They would continue to increase their prices, and bp.tf would be considered outdated and incorrect."


                                                                                                                  The market goes up and up and up. All we do is prove it. People are already selling for 8.33 ref and such, so we're technically behind. But bp.tf doesn't all of a sudden increase the price of keys. There isn't a seller on tf2outpost below 8 ref that isn't sold out. 8 ref sellers are starting to become rare as well. The price will keep rising above what bp.tf says it is, it doesn't matter if we stop suggesting for a rise or not.


                                                                                                                  Also this was mentioned by Xentius in an earlier comment:

                                                                                                                  "After the price has raised once again. Bots and traders will go 2 - 10% higher price.

                                                                                                                  So yeah, people will be selling for 8.66 - 9 after this is accepted."

                                                                                                                    And I'm just sitting here, noming on some delicious chocolate pixels because RedParadox owed me for buying a key for 7.44 and under. *nom*

                                                                                                                      Or it could just be self gain. You know, greed and all that fancy stuff?


                                                                                                                      To be fair, you have a great point. From where I was standing in the last six months, I have only seen keys raise. Now, if people already know that keys are going to stay constant, then overpay WILL occur. And when nobody sells for that price, people get desperate. It's technically both BP.TF and TF2Outpost doing this kind of crap that causes this constant to stay working.

                                                                                                                        You mean profit?

                                                                                                                  I would like to see proof from sites other then outpost and from people other then bots

                                                                                                                    Which sites exactly ?

                                                                                                                      There is the old forums, the TF2 Group forums, bazaar, steam trades, reddit and several other sites you can trade on. Outpost is not the only one.

                                                                                                                        How about getting proof from those site by yourself ?

                                                                                                                          Im not the OP, just saying its pretty lazy to only use outpost and ooutpost bots as proof. You can also feel free to use them. no need getting all puffy about it.

                                                                                                                          I feel you are trolling so I will stop replying to you

                                                                                                                            No bad intentions. Sorry for misunderstanding.

                                                                                                                      Ahem. Scroll up just a bit and read the comment I posted in reply to -MGGAR- Colonel Kur.

                                                                                                                          Scrap.tf just increased the price.


                                                                                                                          http://scrap.tf/keys# - buying at 8.11, selling at 8.22

                                                                                                                              I thought cooldown was 3 days?

                                                                                                                                Well one argument is keys on paypal. Since ref is supposedly inflated, keys rise in ref to keep up with their value on paypal. That's just 1 argument though.

                                                                                                                                  Who are you to decide what the right price for Keys is?


                                                                                                                                  Btw. it's the Keys which are going up, Ref is just going down.

                                                                                                                                    But it's logical that something what you get from TF2 for free is worth 24 cents?

                                                                                                                                      Because it takes more than 2 weeks to get 1 refined for "free" . And also this refined is not " free" , you just spent time on tf2 to get the free drops and that time you wasted on a game could have been used to do better work and get real money in real life (someething most of us here dont even know what is).And about this ref inflation , valve should change from 3 ref to 2 ref to make a hat .

                                                                                                                                        What was the original reason to get TF2? To play the game for fun or for the drops?


                                                                                                                                        Refined is free, no matter what. You don't need to pay any currency for it.

                                                                                                                                      Well, at least you have some contribution points to spare :/

                                                                                                                                      Who are you to decide what the right price for Keys is?

                                                                                                                                      wow I leave for less than a week and it went all the way up to 8 ref , just one question: why? -.-

                                                                                                                                        People keep paying more.

                                                                                                                                          just because you seem to have stupidly taken less than you could have doesn't mean the rest of the market actually is selling or buying at that price.

                                                                                                                                            Well, I won't say it's a market changer. But I at least deserve that cookie.

                                                                                                                                            teach me master

                                                                                                                                            the thing that worrys me, key aren't rising..... the prices of all other tf2 items are falling, key are the only item that has a correlation to real USD, when keys rise, the rest of items in tf2 fall a little

                                                                                                                                              This ^^^^^^

                                                                                                                                                Finally, someone who gets it.

                                                                                                                                                  ...I read every single comment on these key suggestions, seeing how dumb people get, but seriously, I think I'm done. Worst troll 2014.

                                                                                                                                                    well, maybe he got some point, just look on new items i his backpack. like 80 new keys :)

                                                                                                                                                      Sure, thats kinda good

                                                                                                                                                        Already tough buyer competition at 8 ref and even at 8.11. Another conservative suggestion with community approval.


                                                                                                                                                        As always, the cooldown rules are still in place: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/2620-key-cooldown-guidelines-read-before-making-key-suggestions/