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Arcana Tyrant
mini:http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18631762 Sold for Aces Hat of Cards (10) + sweets (~0.4)
10.4 * 0.9 = 9.36 (rounding to 9.4)
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2595582094,99,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2474406370,825,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18356238 Sold for 2 DBD Hat of Cardseseses (4.3 * 2)
8.6 * 0.9 = 7.74 (rounding to 7.7)
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2595582094,99,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18424936
Let it ride.
Thats alot of cards
upvote c:
Two more sales here: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/8542-report-a-single-sale-the-forum-version/#entry94869
http://i.imgur.com/moJIAkb.png sulph muffs + 8 keys on March 17th
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19083972#latest - clean burning spartan - credits to Coolrocks
Also want to note that the DBD hat of cards was closer to 5 in pure at the time of that trade - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5336cf334dd7b8c90b8b47ee - there is a sale there at 5 in mostly pure. I think that sale value is closer to ~9-10
Not sure about the low end.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19795590 The guy who bought the Spartan didn't value it at more than 8.5 immediately after purchase, and the Tyrant was offered. That's almost perfectly mid-range, and valuing the Spartan any lower than that would suggest the price needs to be lower.
Well, your low end is based on the price of the hat of cards set 2 months after that sale was made. The suggestion I linked showed a sale at 5 pure right around the time the two were sold for the tyrants, so the DBD hoc was probably ~5 back then.
New effect hats are moving targets and we need to try to capture their value as close to the time of sale as possible. We cannot assume that the current price captured their value in March.
Alright, well. 9-9.4, then?