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Sales:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19917188 - sold for 2 buds pure ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19929799 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19286448 - sold for KaW hat with no name ~3.8*0,9 = ~3.4
Don't you think one of them is an outlier? Maybe anothe sale would be good.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19923835 - 'Quickselling' 2.5 pure (said in a hidden offer they were even willing to take 2.1)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18944219 - Selling for 3
1 - he bought it for 2 buds pure, sure he'll do anything above 2 buds
2 - just uncrated
I don't know what's the problem of it being 'recently crated'. The trade was up for 1 month showing that it doesn't sell at 3 buds.
The problem is that he has 3 offers (2 of them are troll ones actually) in almost 2 months. It's poorly bumped.
Regardless, the range is way too big on such a low tier hat/effect. You'll need a third sale to determine which one is an outlier, which is most likely the higher end.
So, it's quite hard to show some other sales as far as there're only 3 on the market, one of which was just uncrated.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19286448 - bought for electrostatic bucket helm ~2.1*0,9 = 1,9 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19273686 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19780016 - sold for sbtwc steel shako ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19935100 )
Electrostatic bucket helm:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19947462 - sold for cauldron bubbles batters ~1.8*0,9 + 4 keys = ~1.9 ( http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197999019958?time=1401260400 )
The only recent sale I could find, all the rest are 3months old+
No sales of sbtwc steel shako within 3 months except this one
So I'm quite sure that 3.4 sale is an outlier and its price should be 2 buds flat