Suggestion: Arcana Tyrant's Helm at 153–187 keys

Price Suggestion

~7850 keys

arcana

46 votes up

12 votes down

Related Suggestions

This suggestion was closed automatically because another price suggestion was accepted instead.

Comments can no longer be left on this suggestion.

Comments

Countermanipulation. Er, suggestion. Whatever.

a) bought mine for a clean burning spartan, my buyout was 10. price is outdated.

Credit to Gent for the next 2.

b) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18631762 Sold for Aces Hat of Cards (10) + sweets (~0.4)

10.4 * 0.9 = 9.36 (rounding to 9.4)

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2595582094,99,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2474406370,825,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18356238 Sold for 2 DBD Hat of Cardseseses (5 * 2)

I quote Polar:

Also want to note that the DBD hat of cards was closer to 5 in pure at the time of that trade - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5336cf334dd7b8c90b8b47ee - there is a sale there at 5 in mostly pure. I think that sale value is closer to ~9-10

10 * 0.9 = 9

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2595582094,99,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18424936

d) sold for duped beams tyrants: ~11

it was offered here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19021732

seems to be 1 for 1 as seen here: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198073898279?time=1397199600

Minisuggesting the duped beams tyrant's:

1. the tyrants sold for an antifreeze phantom http://backpack.tf/item/1680715071 + s.f. scatter http://backpack.tf/item/63940423

he added a bud and 3 keys http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070972595?time=1397631600

phantom is ~12 see my current suggest, scatter is ~2.7, together they are 14.2 after overpay, -1.2 for the added pure and the tyrants comes out to ~13

2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19372819

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19314845

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198043566764?time=1397977200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070972595?time=1398063600

bought for scorching AA + 9 keys pure, ~8.6

3. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19392408

sold + hearts mountain cap for hearts veil + nuts company

puts the tyrants at ~8, seems like an outlier, mountain cap and company are 10 and 9 months outdated respectively.

4. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19731216

sold for eerie lucky, harvest stash, vivid beak. after overpay, roughly ~14, beak is a little outdated. again, an outlier, but shows how much these can go for.

5. not a sale, just to be clear, just an offer

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19944164

offered disco tyrants + s.f. rocket

~10.3 with overpay

6. once again, an offer not a sale.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19923706

offered a c9 cone, ~10.8 with overpay (and yes this tyrants is a different one, but still duped http://backpack.tf/item/251702814)

7. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19903485

bought for a duped houwar (these are valued at 9 in suggestion terms, right?)

8. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19122918

www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19191758

bought for beams rack + stormy stash (value ~13.5)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198042344661?time=1397372400

previous owner added a s. invis watch 0.2, sale value ~13.3

9. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19438145

sold for timewarp war pig ~10.6

so there's a lot here, and i'm sorry to have such a big "mini" suggest. 3 sales between 8-9 and 3 between 13-14.

calling 8 and 14 definite outliers, they involve out of date prices and are the extremes. 9-13 seems about reasonable, bearing in mine a couple of offers reaching nearly 11, 2 sales at either end to support, and 10.6 in the middle.

overall, feel free to shout at me that the beams tyrant sale is an outlier or whatever, but it's more recent than both of the other sales, it's not a huge outlier and both of those are new effect hats which have of course been declining constantly in value.

Even if the spartan is outdated, that sale is no more than 8. Sales here at ~8, 9, 9.4, 11. I would argue that 11 is more of an outlier than 8. But if you are including 11, you'll need to include 8 as well.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19195664 - edit, it may not even be 7.5. 9-9.5 vs 7.5-11? Probably needs more offers / sales to clarify.

Polar's right. There's a reason I didn't include that Beams Tyrant sale. And I had to resuggest with the 'correct' values of the DBD hat of cards anyway, so the 'moving price of new effects' argument is completely and utterly moot.

yeah, I'll be honest I didn't and don't expect this to pass. But the price guide would be less accurate if it never mentioned at all, even in passing or to label it an outlier, the fact that this 1 of 1 hat sold for a beams tyrant, i.e. that this hat is capable of getting way more than the 9.2 midpoint posited by the other suggestion. And, to be fair, same for the opposite, that a guy was willing to sell it for a hat worth 7.5-8.

We could wait for me to sell it in order to provide more data, or you can be conservative and take the middle 2 sales of the current bunch. Does make me wonder what I might have gotten away with if I'd minisuggested the tyrants at 10 by just choosing to leave out some of the data I had. It would look like a much less significant outlier. And, not that it means anything, but I'd 100% reject an aces hat of cards / 2 disco hats of cards right now, which is what makes the whole thing slightly comical to me.

"I'd 100% reject an aces hat of cards / 2 disco hats of cards right now" - which is why I told him his suggestion at 7.5-9 was off. 2 months ago (when those sales happened), you might have considered those. Now, there's no way. I suspect that if someone offered you 8 in pure, you'd take it for your hat.

Also, the last time I checked, the duped beams tyrants was selling at 8-9. Perhaps it is now 8-10 or even 9-10, but I would be surprised if those sales at 8 are really outliers with more digging. It's pure price is likely closer to 8-9 with sales and offers at 10 in new effect hats.

except that the 13.3 and 14, the highest sales, are entirely 1st/1st halloween and 1st/2nd gen. and believe it or not I'd decline 8 pure right now ;)

I'm not doing this to #savetehbpvalue, I didn't buy the hat to sell it for pure, I'm doing it because I think it's a better reflection of the value of the hat and I bought the hat to continue having a sweet solly hat.