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4 Month(s) Old
Overpay calculated
Proof below
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19354853 Sold for 1 Bud, Pink Bills (0.4) + 7 Keys (0.4) = 1.8
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19707436 Sold for DP Noble Nickel (2.3)
Nickel: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2634546187,30006,5
Feedback is appreciated
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19937542 <buyout of 2 for 1 week, another has been up at 2 for 18 hours, another for 1.5 for 3 days. above 2 is an outlier judging by buyouts.
The guy was offered a DBD Softcap (2.5) after overpay. I don't think anything above 2 is an outlier
The other trades are young.
i just think that with 3 buyouts at 2 and under it doesn't reflect the current value of the hat to have it priced higher than you would have to pay in pure to get one; the sellers at 2 aren't saying they're quickselling and after 1 week it's not quicksold. I dunno. Another sold a while ago for a vivid outdoorsman which is ~1.8 with overpay (although the outdoorsman is a tiny bit outdated). Personally I think 1.8-2 makes more sense, but I'll stay neutral on this I guess.
The 1 week old trade did say he had a C/O of 1.5 pure so the trade selling for 1.5 is no exception
The buyout of 2 trade you mentioned is less than a day old, it hasn't been out long enough to receive potential offers.
Some people might also be bogged down by the backpack.tf low end (Bible.tf) which makes them uncertain of their offer.
Robot Noble's not above 2 any more. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20069772 It's been listed for about 1.5 weeks. It's somewhere from 1.5 to 2. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19990946
Second link was a quicksale. But I see your point.