Suggestion: Green Energy Lucky Shot at 123.5 keys

Price Suggestion

~155 keys

g.nrg

112 votes up

39 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sun, 22 Jun 14 19:12:05 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

Holy fuck that jump.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018652258?time=1394521200 and http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018652258?time=1394694000 - Sold for a Circling Heart Napper's Respite (5.15 * 0.9 = 4.635 rounded to 4.6), 2 buds, and 20 keys (buds were worth 19-20 keys at the time of the sale, so I'll value it at 1 bud exactly).

Very rare hat to come across. Only 1 sale in the past 3 months, so I can price it based off of that alone.

I like that 2 year old suggestion.

I had a mini-seizure when I saw that jump.

the word "fuck" is a bit of an understatment.

One more sale 2 months ago: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18440382#latest

The set was sold for: beams lucky shot + roboactive hat of cards + gifted antifreeze phantom

I'd consider that sale invalid, as it involved 5 different unusuals, and sales involving more than 3 are usually considered invalid proof, because it can be hard to get accurate pricing for every single one of them (for one, the Roboactive HoC is outdated).

We need valid updated sales (lucky was misc back then, now it's a hat), both of these sales occured when the lucky could be worn with a stash (technically a misc). Since the lucky is back to a hat, both those sales are irrelevent.

This would have been acceptable 2 months ago when the lucky was pretty much a misc.

Both these sales seem invalid, they were valid when there was a lucky hype, however since the lucky was converted back into a hat while the stash was converted into a misc, the lucky hype died.

I feel it's inaccurate since it's using an old hype, JUST like how it would be inaccurate to use old prices on FESTIVIZERS/RACKS because of hype issues.

There's no recent sales, hype died, gonna downvote.

Using this sale is problematic because it happened when the lucky was a "misc."

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18440382 - here is another one that sold at around the same time. It was reverted to normal hat status on April 1, when the stash became the official misc. So this was a "misc" from March 5 to April 1 and sales during that time have always been considered outliers on all lucky shot suggestions.

Unfortunately, sales during that time period are just not reliable. On the other had, this may still be better than the current range... so I will ask other mods what they think.

So it's agreed then. I've always wanted a moderator to speak up about that because I had no official idea about it before.

The thing is, while this might be a little high, it can't be denied that it's at least better than the current, really low range. The PE Lucky's price of 5 buds was last updated about 3 1/2 months ago, and I'm sure it would be around 5-6 now, so I'm sure if a GE Lucky were to ever hit the market again, it would sell for a similar amount.

Actually, I believe the current value on the PE lucky is closer to 7. I remember looking at one a few weeks back going for that. So this actually might not be that far off. But this is really speculation. We honestly have no idea. Is that enough for a suggestion?

After discussing with several other mods, the majority feel that it would be better to wait for another sale and to leave the price outdated for now. Experience suggests that the suggested price is better than the current. But is it "close enough"? Honestly, no way to tell. We'll need to wait for more sales..