Had one of these for awhile. A lot of its sales involve hats that are unpriced, and one involves a hat which has devalued since.

This is a remake of a suggestion earlier in the day; the 7.8-bud value sale is being listed as an outlier now, as no other trade comes even close to that value. Should this suggestion fail, a remake with the 7.8 as a non-outlier, plus any additional sales that occur in the interim, will be made.

First proof of sale can be seen in the difference between these two backpack views:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1399359600 - Here's the owner with the hat.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1399446000 - Here is the owner without the hat, and with a C9 Exec and a DP Luchadore. Don't see anything else new in his backpack, so it appears to have been a 2:1.

The C9 Exec has a current price from 2 months ago (1 month ago was when this trade occurred), so its value can be used as-is: with overpay applied, it's ~8.5. The Luchadore is as-of-yet unvalued, but going by my mini-suggestion, it appears to be somewhere between 1.5-2, so this offer's a solid ~10 buds.

Now, the two trades in which I made contact with the hat. The first is here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19424596

I sold to Pershing for exactly what you see there - the Grandmaster was worth ~1.5 buds at the time. Sadly, the Arcana Glasgow is unique, I purchased from the community market, and I know of no other times in which it changed hands - in short, I can't really get any usable information from this deal. In the interests of transparency, I purchased the Glasgow for $303 or so off the market a few months ago.

However, I just sold it for a T-Watt Headsplitter and 70 keys, visible in the change of my inventory seen here:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036550413?time=1402902000 Before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036550413?time=1402988400 After

The 70 keys have a little over a 4.1-bud value, and the T-Watt Headsplitter is ~7.65 after overpay. Thus, this offer was worth ~11.8.

Next sale:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044085776?time=1402815600 Before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044085776?time=1402902000 After

Pretty clear-cut; he bought it for a C9 Glasgow (~5), a Bubbling Nunhood (unvalued, mini-suggestion suggests ~4.3), and 16 keys (~.9). In total, this deal was worth ~10.2.

Outlier:

Outlier sale occurs here (technically before the first sale):

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1398063600 - Here's the buyer with a Misty Skull Pith Helmet and a Scorching Noir.

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198033657100?time=1398150000 - Here's the buyer down those two items, and up the Hiding Hood. (Note that a KaW Beak also disappears during this time, but it appears to have been part of a different transaction involving an unusual Soldered Sensei)

At the time of the trade, the Pith was just a wee bit more expensive, putting it at ~4 after overpay. The Noir's value, after overpay, is ~3.8, making this offer worth ~7.8. The seller, Paranormal Panda, confirms this was the entire sale (his inventory changed significantly the day of the trade, so confirmation was necessary). This has been regarded as an outlier due to the next-closest sale being significantly higher at ~10 buds, and all other sales being snugly within the 10-12 range.

Mini-suggestions below.

Mini-suggestion: DP Lucha

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044558797?time=1398063600 Lucha

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044558797?time=1398150000 Post-Lucha

Sold for a memory leak soldered sensei, which was unvalued at the time but ~1.4 now.

I'm finding impressively little usable information on the Lucha, and what few offers it gets appear to be in the ~1.5-2 range (barring the occassional dubious "full-keys-from-a-new-account" offers). This seems like a bad evaluation of the value, but I can find little solid proof of a Lucha selling outside of the community market and for valued hats; in addition, the proposed proof involving the value of the Lucha, regardless of whether it's 1.5 buds or 3.5, will still fit snugly into the range regardless of exact value.

Mini-suggestion: Bubbling Nunhood

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082673868?time=1402038000 Nunhood

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198082673868?time=1402383600 No Nunhood, up a T-Watt Fed-Fighting

The T-Watt Fed-Fighting Fedora is ~4.3 after overpay. This seems steep for a bubbling nunhood, but the magic of forced themes appears to have worked here.

This is what I've got. Lemme know what you think.