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Oldness is old.
SALES:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20241620 Added Hearts Cone (1.9) for Spellbound Kabuto (17)
(17 * 0.9) - 1.9 = 13.2 (Rounding to 13)
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2687684728,518,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2660459704,435,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2687684752,152,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20423632 Sold for EOF Veil (See suggestion at 15) + Duped Hearts Noble (Mini at 4.2)
(19.2 * 0.9) = 17.28 (rounding to 17)
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2687684728,518,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2702556960,137,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2702556942,393,5
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53a75dc14cd7b854718b490a
Noble mini:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20564590 Sold + PE Shako (3.5) for AF Sensei (8.5)
(8.5 * 0.9) - 3.5 = 4.15 (rounding to 4.2)
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2702556960,137,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2696472676,251,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2705416623,30004,5
Using 4.2 on the Noble.
Let it ride.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18635234 - 11 days to sell for ghosts CM + 5.2 pure? Maybe one more buds involved? Still would be 13-14 max.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20241620 - your sale on the buto is incorrect. http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048335259?time=1403074800 - all 5 hats here were added for the anger. That sale is ~22. Also had a duped scorching mancer + ~6 offer which would be way above the suggested range.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20464489 - second sale is off as well as it was offered on the veil. no overpay
So sales at 13 (sold fast, is old, and offers higher than 15 consistently), 19, and 22? 13 is surely the outlier here.