Current price is 10 months old, at the height of the sniper-flies hype. Original price was 20.3-21. This isn't as drastic a drop as it looks, therefore, and is logically predictable.

SALES:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17639187 Sold for Duped Burning Buccaneer (see mini, mini at 10.45) + DBD Cowl (6.2) + Sunbeams Billycock (Outdated at 3.8, mini at 3.75)

(10.45 + 6.2 + 3.75) * 0.9 = 18.36 (rounding to 18)

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2644076698,393,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2428211922,607,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2430249539,465,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2424867421,108,5

Burning Buccaneer mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20535318 Sold for Burning Mountain cap (5.7) + 5 pure + Sweets (~0.7? The new taunts are all over the place.)

(6.4 * 0.9) + 5 = 10.76

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2711209639,607,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2711209304,381,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19294106 Sold for DP Dread Hood (6.8) + GBH Mullet (3.2) + G.Fetti Slouch (~1.2)

(6.8 + 3.2 + 1.2) * 0.9 = 10.08 (rounding to 10.1)

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2428211922,607,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2538529454,1095,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2538529465,147,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2538529471,344,5

Using 10.1 - 10.8 on the Buccaneer.

Sunbeams Billycock Mini:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19714923 Sold for Blizzardy Bonk Boy (2.9) + Flies Fuka (17.5 keys, = 1.077 buds)

(2.9 + 1.077) * 0.9 = 3.5793 (rounding to 3.6)

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2424867421,108,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2587533790,451,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2587533802,395,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19607971 Sold for RA Slouch (~4.3)

4.3 * 0.9 = 3.87 (rounding to 3.9)

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2424867421,108,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2585230387,344,5

Basically a refresh, but with a tighter range. Using 3.75.

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18518235 Offers of:

Scorching Tower (10.3) + Scorching Bonnet (6) + Orb. Fire Crones (6.1) (20.2 with overpay)

Eerie Crones (22.3) (20.1 with overpay)

Sold for Miami TC (12.8 18 at time of sale) + Sunbeams Tin Gallon (Unpriced, see mini Unpriceable, no non-highly complex sales in the last five months) + Sweets (S.PDA + S.Gunslinger + S. Gifted Kritz + Aussie Frontier + Aussie Wrench (Total = 5.38 buds))

Histories:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2644076698,393,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2626112478,378,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2626112439,30044,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20005969

Not using as proof, due to varying factors (Miami TC moves, Kritz is gifted, backpack histories suggests non-concurrent sweets) And the fact that a current price cannot be accurately ascertained on the Beams Tin Gallon.

Let it ride.