3 month old price on a robo-hat with a summer effect...

Sale #1

Buyers Backpack Before:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116145674?time=1402297200

Buyers Backpack After:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116145674?time=1402383600

Sold for 15 keys pure, a strange festive amby (5 keys), a strange festive sapper (3 keys), a festive knife (1 key), a genuine fortified compound (1 key), 6 craft hats (1 key), a 2 ref heavy misc, a orange uncraftable anger, and a pink drill hat (1.5 keys for the last three items), coming to a total of 27.5 keys. At the time buds were worth 16.5 keys, which makes this sale be 1.7 buds.

Sale #2

This sale actually took me a while to figure out.

So the hat started out here:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116145674?time=1402556400

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198116145674?time=1403074800 and in the next image of the owners backpack, is nowhere to be seen. Instead there is a smoking yellow belt with no immediate connection to any of the other owners of this particular baker boy in its history.

So, I looked into it, and it turns out the previous owner of the yellow belt traded it for a lantern capotain.

Before:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102983819?time=1402988400

After:

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198102983819?time=1403074800

That capotain was sold to them by the next owner of the hat Hankbob Billpants, which means that, even though the history of the smoking belt doesn't show Hankbob Billpant's name on it, it is highly likely that he sold it for the disco oiled baker boy. He just owned the hat for less than a day (this person seems to flip unusuals a lot) and never scanned their bp with it in there.

tl;dr

One sale for a smoking masters yellow belt, 1.9 buds, which gives this hat a value of 1.8 after overpay

Unsolds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16651345 - B/O of 2 buds, trade has been up for 6 months (manually bumped too, not a premium account)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20925101 - B/O of 2 buds, only been up for 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20404660 - B/O of 2.25 buds for two weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20205038 - B/O of 2.5 buds for a month

Given the two unsolds at 2 (especially the one that's been up for 6 months) as well as the sales at 1.7 and 1.8, I think the new price is fairly reasonable.