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1 more suggestion.
And this thing still relates to Christmas Hype somehow.
Sold for 1.55
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20754890
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20889269
Same seller, 2 different hats (I'm sure this time)
Conclusion: Before you say something stupid like "Not enough proof, downvote", take a look on the market first. This thing is so rare now. Demand > Supply because supply of craft hats went down and it's reasonable for this thing to rise.
Feel free to counter / support my proofs.
You're still appraising 18k items based on what one seller could accomplish. You still need more proof, even if its hard to find.
The classifieds are a clue to me though: Usually there are some at below the value, but today there aren't any below 1.55.
For what little it may be worth, this is what I could find when I was searching for proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20608270 - Was offered 1.33 and turned it down
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20423217 - Selling for 2 refined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10664850 - Lvl 42 for 1.66 indicates that you might not be so right
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20998433 - Selling for 1.55
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21023963 - Selling for 1.33
I don't know how to search tf2outpost for solds, otherwise I would help you there. Its getting too late to search for real proof anyway.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/214107586
18k items with only 1 page on Outpost. This is enough, I did it a ton of times.
Ex: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53b795ae4cd7b8fc388b4700 (And to add the pain to the injuries, both sales are from me)
Any questions?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10664850 I dunno about this, it's a year old :u and I'm not sure how a guy selling for more because special levels indicates giang is wrong?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20423217 ok, it isn't selling for 2ref, fascinating :?
and I think the proof is fine, market availability is very low you realize :u and number in existence =/= market availability
Christmas hype means that this is the new BMOC.
Upvote
Sold for 1.55
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21053238
Same seller again.