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3 months old price, way too high. Straight to the proof.
Sellers for below the price:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20698403 28 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21064081 34 keys (the same guy is selling it in classifieds for 25 keys.)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20909376 35 keys
Solds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21025981
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21049644
Here Inspektor caniba apparently bought one for 23 keys, and immediately sold it with the same buyout. Both trades happened in a day or less, so 23 keys would be considered quicksell.
Some of the trades represented are really new, but there has been one for sale in the classifieds for 35 keys, for 6 days,
So yeah, i'd say anything below 25 is a quicksell and at least the one(s)? for 35 has not been sold, i'd say 30 keys would be a reasonable roof
please put it in buds ;_;
Please take into account that bud price was different at the time and the price is now readjusted in keys. and your second link already sold his within a day interesting (don't see in backpack at least). (16-17keys ea bud, which was 38keys 2.3buds price at the time the 35key one was listed.)
Also your sold ones are listed as quicksales, which are invalid proof. (you seem to be well aware of that)
But you are right, this item is not as fluid as many other unusuals.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079452359?time=1402988400 - sold for 1.7 after overpay
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070975491?time=1404630000 - sold for ~1
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198021069617?time=1404802800 - 1.5ish? KAW elfin has an outdated price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21326573 - b/o 1.5
Please resuggest in buds. It looks like the 23 key sales are not outliers when the 1.5 seller can't sell in a week+. A range of ~1.3-1.7 seems reasonable.