I'm having so much fun price suggesting things that arn't unusuals.

Anyway, price is 7 months old, and the market right now reflects it's age.

Classifieds right now : http://imgur.com/6fnbCYr lots of free paint / selling under 4 keys.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21115950 wants 3 keys 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20979248 wants 3 keys 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21048330 wants 3 keys 8 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21035911 wants 3 keys 5 ref, owns two.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20973883 wants 3 keys 4 ref

There's not that many on the market, literally less than a page. But 4 keys isn't selling all:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21062096 wants bp.tf / 2 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20749270 wants 4 keys / 1 week old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20993536 wants 4 keys / 4 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21012507 wants 4 keys / 3 days old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20816307 wants bp.tf price / 1 week old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20712881 wants 4 keys / 2 weeks old

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20943475 wants 4 keys / 6 days old.

This hat isn't selling often (Understandable as not many people buy the more expensive genuines) and they have trouble selling even at "Reduced" pricing. I conclude that 3.5-4 keys here would be a good, conservative drop.