Suggestion: Disco Beat Down Killer Exclusive at 222–249.75 keys

Price Suggestion

~167.5 keys

dbd

91 votes up

20 votes down

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This suggestion was accepted Thu, 17 Jul 14 13:30:23 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

Making a price suggestion for the first time in a long time…

Disco KE—Great Hat, but needs a drop. Current price is too high.

SOLD:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20676299 (Disco KE + 3 Buds for Roboactive Bubble Pipe). RA Bubble Pipe = 18.5 buds (reference here: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53bde64d4dd7b8172f8b4568), which puts the price on the Disco KE at 15.5, but the RA Bubble was priced using this exact sale. If we take the more standard 90% rule, it’s 0.9*18.5 = 16.65, minus 3 buds = 13.65 ~= 13.5 bud value on the Disco KE). Looking at what Moose bought the RA Pipe for (http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53bd982d4cd7b86b128b4568), he bought it for ~16 buds, so if we place a tentative value of 16 buds on the RA Pipe, the KE would only be valued at 0.9*16-3 = 11.4 buds.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21127919 (B/O 15 buds, traded 1:1 with a Hellfire Infernal Impaler http://imgur.com/lolfbIy, no price on the Impaler though, but his B/O was 15 buds pure on the Disco KE)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21193482 (Ended up trading 1:1 with a Ghosts Stash (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21195351), 0.9*13 = 11.7 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21115140 (Sold for a Burning Tyrolean + Sweets = 0.9*13 + Sweets = 11.7 buds + Sweets, let’s say it was 1.3 buds in sweets at most equals 13 buds; 0.3 buds in sweets sounds more reasonable though = 12 buds)

SELLING:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21199612 (B/O 14 buds pure, offered it to me for 13 buds pure)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20243008 (Claims he has an offer of 7 buds + Moon YWN ~= 16.5 buds, but could be from a few weeks ago, no proof either)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20835994 (No idea what it was bought for, previous owners haven’t made a trade in like a year before)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21050762 (Willing to add 50 keys ~= 2.5 buds for a Burning Modest. Assuming he gets a clean one instead of mass-duped, BP.TF values it at 19 buds, 19*0.9-2.5 ~=14.5 buds. If he gets a mass-duped one (which he states he doesn't care, which is much more likely), it will be worth at least 1 bud less = 13.5 buds, if not lower.)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21147821 (Claims C/O: Flies Crone (0.9*17=15.3 buds), Secret Phantom (0.9*14 = 12.6 buds), Visible C/O: Aces KE + Logo Veil (0.9*7.6+0.9*7.8 = 13.86 buds))

Also note the guy who has offered a Terror-Watt TC on almost all of the Disco KEs (0.9*16.5 = 14.85 but SEVERELY outdated price, Terror-Watt TC is definitely a lot lower than 16.5 buds as it was last updated 4 months ago).

OVERALL:

Phew, a lot of links. If we take a look at the sales, they range from 11.7 buds (11.4 if you take the third way to price the Bubble Pipe) to 13.5 buds value in sales, and a sale of an unpriced Hellfire Impaler (unpriced, so just make a note of it). Many sellers have B/Os or “quicksells” for 14-15 buds pure, and I was personally offered one for 13 buds pure (http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15833785#latest See Flapjack’s post near the bottom, he offers it to me for 13). Overall, it seems like the lowest price that it was sold for was about 12 buds, and the highest is around 13.5 buds, and with many people selling for pure at 14-15 buds as B/O, a real price of 12-13.5 buds seems appropriate. Let me know if you have any comments or suggestions.

that drop though

I've had literally three people offer me Disco KEs for 14-15 buds in the past week, so I felt that was peculiar and did some research on the sales and stuff. Well, I think the numbers don't lie, drop is drop though.

kill me now :l

Uh btw, he added me too offer so no overpay should be apllied on the Stash.

Sorry man, see my post in response to Zhuocheng up above for why I made this suggestion.

Maybe wait till I've sold mine? Atm it's still quickselling so its invalid

I don't really know how "quickselling" it is when the sales have been in the range you're "quickselling" for, and when multiple people have tried to sell their Disco KE to me for 1-2 buds above what you are "quickselling" at, with B/Os of 15 buds or "willing to take 15 buds". There's the rule that the price cannot be above B/Os, and there are some of those which have shown to have B/Os of 15, so that's also a factor.

Still, your range is inccorect. He offered the KE on me

Which one is incorrect? And what should it be? Please elaborate. Even if you make one change that makes the price jump up to 15 buds, there's a lot more evidence with the current range, and the B/O rule.

He offered the KE on my Stash.

So it's valued at 13 buds. That's still in my range. However, you did not make the trade with him, and he made it with someone else. So I don't see how my range is incorrect, it's going off of sales, 13 buds is within 12-13.5, so it actually supports my range.

I have the trade history for ghost stash and disco ke

At this point I'm really wondering if you're arguing just for the sake so that you don't lose money. Do you have anything CONSTRUCTED to say? Like I said before, I did all this research, feel free to comment. I don't have any idea what you're trying to tell me. If you disagree, please say so in a coherent manner. Even if you do have a 15 bud sale or something like that, it can easily be seen as an outlier given the sales and "1-bud-off-B/O-quicksells" at ~14 buds.

And then once you trade it away (for a Vivid Dread Riding Hood with you adding ~1 bud, pretty sure that fits in the category of my price range), you stop posting. Classic "gotta defend my hat don't want it to drop in price" backpack.tf user...

New Sale:

Disco KE + 1.25 buds for a Vivid Dread Riding Hood. The Dread Riding Hood is 1 of 1, but I doubt that it will be worth more than 15 buds, quite possibly could be less, so this also adds some proof that the current range is too high.

http://imgur.com/z0kdYpc

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21184248

Also says that he wants 10 buds pure or 15 in unusuals for the Vivid Dread, taking pure price, *0.9, -1.25 = 7.75 bud value for the Disco KE--EXTREMELY Low, but the Dread is a 1-of-a-kind hat.

EDIT: ANOTHER SALE!!!!

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21105624#latest

Disco Beat Down Killer Exclusive for a Roboactive Company Man. Some sweets were added (like 5 keys worth) onto the CM for the KE (owner of the CM who traded for the KE told me that).

Company Man: 14.4*0.9 = 12.96 buds, call it 13 buds flat after sweets and rounding. Price for the RA CM is outdated, but hypothetically it should be same or lower with the way people react to these kinds of hats. Another bit of proof for dropping the price of the KE--looks great, but overpriced. #ripsummereffects

I wish I could edit the original post after 1 hour...

More "proof": "Quicksell" offer of 10 buds (Yes, TEN buds) which I declined due to (most likely when) a price drop soon, everyone will be dropping their prices. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15833785#latest (read Jizz_Syrup's post at the very bottom--his second post).

ANOTHER Sale:

http://imgur.com/ctdPby8

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21201748 (GBH Drill Hat + ~6 buds for Disco KE)

The Drill is unpriced on bp.tf, but Roboactive Drill is priced at 7 buds. Assuming GBH = RA, that means that this sale is valued at 0.9*7+6 = 13.3 buds maximum, but is probably worth less (i.e. 12-12.5 buds) since we're assuming GBH is equal to RA, which it isn't at all. A GBH Drill would be worth less than a RA one for sure.

My comment on the other suggestion: "I don't know. Your sales at 12 and 13 went in 3 days or less. Let's forget for a moment that this is a new effect. A 12-13 buds hat selling in under 3 days is fast. Those honestly look like a chain of quicksells. Your quickseller at 16 you listed above has sold and the one who offered on your trade offered on a quickbuyers trade. Would it be fair to lower all the hats offered to you on your quickbuyers thread?

There is a sale at 16 in pure as well as one at 18. This range just seems low to me."

Having said that, you have added some decent proof here. A sale at 16 pure was added in the other suggestion. Perhaps 12-15 would really be a decent range. Hmm.

The sale at 16 pure is an outlier. It was a few weeks ago iirc, and the owner bought all the keys from the Mann. Co Store apparently (carded keys?), and isn't trading. Safe to say that's an outlier with 15 buds as B/Os on MANY Disco KEs.

I haven't seen the 18 sale yet--if it is the bubble pipe, the recommendation for that price was based off of the current price of the Disco KE which we're changing (also my OP about the Pipe is wrong, I misread and couldn't fix it after the hour).

And then again, the 12-13 bud sales all happened quickly because of these postings actually. Look at Flapjack's long rant up there, and then he sells his KE for the Dread immediately and makes his own price suggestion.

All in all, if there are like 8 sales at 12-13.5 buds and 1 at 16 pure which is clearly an exception, quicksell or not people are willing to sell for that price and the hats have changed hands. If you get a deal you like within 1-2 days and sell it, it's not necessarily called a quicksell.

Overall though, the other suggestion has little proof for his high range, and after all the sales I found, 13.5 seems to be the maximum with a few outliers mentioned on the other trade, and we don't count outliers. Both suggestions agree on the low end of 12, but we disagree on the high end. I see very little proof besides the 16 bud sale which like I said before, is dubious, for his high range of 15, while after all these sales I see they generally max out at around 13.5 buds. I personally haven't seen a concrete sale at 15+ yet besides the dubious pure one.

For instance, in my OP, I mentioned that Jizz_Syrup offered it to me for 15 buds I think originally. Then, in one of my additional comments, I showed that he offered it to me for 10 buds AFTER I POSTED THIS PRICE CHANGE SUGGESTION with lots of proof. Clearly he got scared and wants to dump it before he thinks the change will go through, and lose money, since the change isn't through yet, selling for 10-12 buds might be "quicksell", but in reality the actual price is 10-12 buds, it just hasn't been updated. If the price gets updated to 12-13.5 buds, quickbuyers won't want to buy at 10 buds in value any more.

ALSO, new sale.

Disco KE 1:1 Green Energy Pyromancer -- http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20193540

Purple Energy > Green Energy, PE is valued at 14.3 buds low range at the moment. Therefore, assuming GE Pyro is 14 buds (for easy calculation), that means that the KE is worth 0.9*14.5 = 12.6 => ~12.5 buds. This, of course, assumes PE = GE which isn't the case; PE has always been a bit higher than GE.