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Might as well be my first suggestion, I haven't done one in over a year. Well either way I believe this is ready to go up, up and up! I had the glory of owning one of these, but I got scammed so whatever.. >_>
Sale #1 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20367103 - I bought it myself for 75 keys. Buds at the time were considered 16 keys. 75 / 16 = 4.7. Proof is literally in the trade I bought it, but before and after of my Backpack..
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084375587?time=1403506800 - Before the trade happened. (Look at the stuff I used to have. q_q)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198084375587?time=1403593200 - After the trade happened. 75 keys on page 4 and 5 are gone.
Sale #2 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21091272 - Sold for a Cauldron Bubbles Armored Authority + 2 buds. (3.25 * 0.9 = 2.9 + 2 = 4.9)
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078227700?time=1404802800 - Buyers backpack before the trade happened.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198078227700?time=1404889200 - Buyers backpack before the trade happened.
Sale #3 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20092941 - Sold for a Flies Flipped Trilby (15 keys) + Pink Painted Stash (1.5 sounds fair) + 56 keys. 15 * 0.9 = 13.5 + 1.5 + 56 = 71. Buds were 16 keys at the time. 71 / 16 = 4.4
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038321851?time=1402210800 - Buyers backpack before the trade happened.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198038321851?time=1402297200 - Buyers backpack after the trade happened.
Sale #4 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21067130 - It helps when it says what it sold for. Sold for a Beams Jeepcap + Stormy Mirror + 5 keys. Mini for Jeepcap below. Rest of pricing will also be below.
Sale #5 - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20945243 - 1:1 with a Arcana Gentleman's Ushanka by the looks of it. Pricing will be listed below in a mini suggestion.
I can keep posting and posting proof but it keeps averaging out to the range.
Mini Suggestions for the hats above.
Beams Jeepcap:
Just like Harvest, and every other Jeepcap. Every single one of them for sale is duped. Fantastic. I will not be able to put together a suggestion for this as histories and stuff won't match and I won't probably have any proof of it being a real hat. I will have to use mid range of the current price.
3.9 * 0.9 = 3.5. - Jeepcap.
17 * 0.9 = 15.5. - Stormy Mirror.
15.5 / 18.5 = 0.8. - Mirror being put into terms of buds.
5 / 18.5 = 0.3. - Keys being put into terms of buds.
3.5 + 0.8 + 0.3 = 4.6. - Total.
Current owners:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20772898 (Angry trader. Insults and stuff to other traders..)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12804792
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21288983
^ Look son! Nothing but duped hats!
Mini for the Arcana Ushanka:
There is currently three in existance. Only one up for sale so I will base all my proof off it.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21146408 - Current owner's trade. (10 buds!? What!? Also another angry trader. Constant insults and such.) Either way no offers on it currently. Let's move to past owners.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/223448,1 - Previous owner of the guy who traded it for the Stash. There was no opened trade for it. I'm going to say it sold for a Vivid Plasma Armored Authority + Haunted Ghosts Dread Knot based on the history of both hats saying they seemed to swap owners.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061913319?time=1404370800 - Owners backpack before the trade happened.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061913319?time=1404457200 - Owners backpack after the trade happened.
3.5 * 0.9 = 3.15. Rounding to 3.2. 1.15 * 0.9 = 1. 3.2 + 1 = 4.2.
I'm going to put the tradr above with the Ushanka as a outlier. New effects have such messed up sale history and are impossible to track. It would also mess up the range of the hat..
Well either way I hope this was a strong enough suggestion to hopefully get this to pass. It took me forever to do this as my original one was lost since shift + tab decided to crash right before I was done. Any feedback is appreciated, and please don't be negative if there is an issue, I can always re-suggest it.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21290239
Bought the pfetti stash+gfetti buto for 5 buds+pfetti jeepcap
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21265973
Dunno where that puts things, but you may want to include it in the range if it doesn't already fall within it.
I think that trade went up while I was doing to suggestion. Otherwise I would have done it. Was it a Buto or Stash BTW?
He bought both the gfetti buto and the pfetti stash. Apologies if my reply was cause for confusion.
Oh I see now. I'll do some math and put together a conclusion in a comment.
Based on what I can see, here is how it would work.
Jeepcap is priced at 1.3. 1.3 * 0.9 = 1.17. Rounding to 1.2. 1.2 + 5 = 6.2.
The G Fetti Buto is priced at 2, and the Stash is 4 minus my suggestion. It would work out 4.2. 4.2 may have fit into the range but the only issue I have with 4.2 is the Arcana Ushanka is not reliable proof. No backpack.tf pricing, and sell history on it is messed up. I'm going to currently stick with that range. Based off what I see it appears 4.2 is a good deal even off other sales I have seen.
I have sold my friend's stash for vivid tossle + 8 keys which is ~4.4
Lands perfectly in the range then. Thanks for more support. :D