Since the other suggestion has been sitting in backpack.tf limbo for a solid 6 days, I will counter-suggest. 1 key flat does not appear to be totally accurate, since while there are sales for 1 key (I have copy-pasted some older ones from the other suggestion and its comments at the bottom after checking for successful sales, and added a couple), they are regularly available at 8 ref as well and occasionally slightly below.

Technicals on the specific pricing number: No key decimal does a good job of representing 8 ref, and while this forms the clear lower boundary of easy availability, I can't make suggestions using two decimal places. At the strong suggestion of commenters on my prior submission, I am suggesting a lower end key value that does not precisely represent 8 ref, but is reasonably close. I would love to have suggested 0.95, but that isn't an option. Back to the real-world prices instead of the backpack.tf technicals:

The most important evidence here is availability. Below is every bread box posted in the last 24 hours that was listed for less than 1 key (based on trade.tf's listings; going back to 48 shows the same pattern):

Sellers/solds below 1 key:

1 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21279535 (Closed immediately, erroneous trade)

6 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21284016 (Sold immediately, zero bumps)

6.66 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21288920 (Sold rapidly, <12 hours)

7.44 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21290895 (Sold rapidly but not closed; based on last bump, sold in <3 hours )

8 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21283431 (multiple seller, unknown number of solds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21282157 (apparently sold 1 of 2, last bumped 15 hours ago)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21298962 (3 hours old, offline for a good chunk of that so far)

http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=10195159 ("8 ref or a key", 20 hours old)

Skipped a dispenser.tf listing where I couldn't figure out the actual asking price. May have been a key?

That's it. All trades under 8 ref quicksold. 8 ref is scarce but available, but for anything under 8 ref you have to be quick.

The vast majority of listed breadboxes are unsolds at 1 key. This does not indicate that 1 key is not a sale that happens; it indicates that damn near everyone who has one of these is selling it for 1 key, and there are currently more people supplying it at 1 key than the market can clear over the course of a few days. Based on looking at many trades, lots of people crafted with their own spare hats, and still have the same bread boxes they crafted, listed at 1 key. My theory is that this means many are not major traders, and not willing to post at even a few scrap loss relative to the going rate.

Solds within range (1 key if no note):

Older: (Mostly copied from prior suggestion and its comments, after double checking for actual sale of box)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21185981 (8.33 ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21207001

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21192586

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21186511

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21183424 (8.22)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21192071

More recent:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21295641

- Sold 2 (about 13ish hours ago

- http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995215710?time=1405494000

- http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197995215710?time=1405580400

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21284189 (about 24 hours ago)

The evidence I was able to find for 1 key sales in the last couple days is obviously not great, with just a couple of definite sales at 1 key pure within the last 24 hours, but it was a pain in the ass to find due to the simple volume of trades. Most sellers for a key have several of them, making it difficult to verify individual sales. Hopefully, since I have demonstrated that sales at a key do occur, and sales below 8 ref are quicksales, that will work, but since I'd really prefer to have better evidence on this one, if you have successfully sold a bread box for one key, please show evidence from your steam inventory history below.

Corroborating evidence:

Doesn't fit elsewhere, but an offer of 6.33 on one listed for offers was not accepted: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21199365

Steam community market

Bread box market cost is consistently between about $2.25 and $2.30, we'll take the low value to be conservative. Keys are consistently between $2.45 and $2.50, close enough to the baseline $2.49 to use it for our purposes. This is 0.90 keys for a cash buyer (90% of the cost of a key), or 1.06 keys for someone selling keys to buy the item. This corresponds well to the range we see in sales above.

The key point I want to make about the steam community market prices is it gives us with a great time series. Whatever ratio you prefer to use to describe the price comparison between market and keys, it has clearly been quite stable over the last few days: [url]http://i.imgur.com/zgKsZ1U.png[/url]

Classifieds

8 ref appears on a fairly regular basis, but is not common enough to guarantee availability. For example, there is currently only a single listing at 8 ref, but several at 8.33 and many higher.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/FiBDzfj.png[/url]

This is pretty representative of the classifieds currently, and agrees with the prior evidence. The only 8 ref bread box currently on the classifieds was last bumped 4 days ago and has been offline for 6 hours: http://steamcommunity.com/id/LionLike/

Anyway, first suggestion, hopefully this will be enough evidence. Limited but definite evidence of recent trades at 1 key, and based on limited availability of sellers at a lower price, the fact that sales at a key do happen, and several additional sales within a couple scrap of 1 key, this seems like the most reasonable price range.

Yes, I have a few. I got most of them for 4.66, and you can probably tell based on my reserve crates that I'm not in a hurry on things like this.