This is an updated suggestion. Please see the comments here for 3. http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53cb7c3d4dd7b8a6568b4568

Another sale: Almost two months ago (a bit under two months at the time of me posting this), this happened. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18937354 "Miami nights Reggaelator + 1bud "

Reggaelator (at that time): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19515620 Took five days to sell for 4. Nowadays it's worth closer to 3 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21171291 ) but it this sale (Reggaelator for Defiant Spartan) was almost two months ago so I'll take that 4 for its value in this suggestion since it has dropped in that time. Over-payment: 0.9*4 = 3.6. Thus the Spartan was bought with 3.6 + 1 = 4.6.

Please give opinions. This is a rather large range.

New sale: http://backpack.tf/item/561779801 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21355931 Sold for: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198037694434?time=1406091165 HWAH's been recently updated as 14 keys. As for the MN Head Warmer: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21136532 http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20932657 It has gone unsold for 3 for a few weeks so it's worth no more than 3.

3 + 14/19 =(approximately) 3.7. Applying over-payment and then adding the 2 keys puts that into my suggested range (3.4). However, if you'd like to argue that the over-payment's not necessary here since they negotiated a bit then that sale's still within my suggested range (3.8).