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1 of 1.
SALES:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20743411 Sold for KaW Tyrant's Helm (4.3, see current suggestion)
4.3 * 0.9 = 3.87 (rounding to 4 - outlier)
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2780928279,434,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2780928272,99,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20292322 Sold for 2 buds + 14 keys pure (~2.8 at point of sale)
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2780928279,434,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2672929216,143,6
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2672929204,143,6
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023766022?time=1402556400
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198023766022?time=1402642800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20279296 sold for Time Warp Panama (3)
3 * 0.9 = 2.7
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2780928279,434,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2668243781,109,5
Based on these sales we can conclude 4 is an outlier.
Let it ride.
The 4 bud one is the most recent though. I'd include it and use a 2.8-3.8 range. It's really not fair to dismiss the most recent sale on a limited effect hat like this. This is also the type of hat that will get a big range. Halloween + low tier, yet cultish hat.
Down vote from me based on that.
That... seems sensible, actually, you make a good point. On the grounds that you take the heat when people say 'hurr durr 4 is an outlier', because it technically is, I'm happy to resuggest at 2.8-4.