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Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19832779 - sold for time wrap festive tree ~6.1*0,9 = ~5.5 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20007381 )
The only valid sale. The user keeps it for a month already, so it's possible to price it with 1 sale. ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20109598 - already 1 month passed)
Met the owner on MvM, he's an awesome guy and loves the hat to death, he won't resell unless he gets a really really good deal. More on topic, it seems your proof is good, upboat! :D