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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20663711
Sold for Smoking Halogen (11-12 keys) + 10 keys = 20 keys/ 1 bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21276771
Sold for Smoking Lucky Shot(1.5) + 2 keys = 1.4
http://i.imgur.com/50jqA5w.png
overpay applied
A few things about your suggestion.
1. For your first sale,. you should be using the value of buds accepted nearest to the accepted value. In this case, the buds value should be 16.5 keys. Making that sale 20/16.5 = ~1.2 buds.
2. For your second sale, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21107158. Since he offered on your smoking lucky shot, no overpay should be applied.
3. Smoking Lucky Shot is outdated. You need a mini suggestion for that.