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Some Mongols rise, some Mongols fall.
Most people don't even try for more than a bud. Thus, you can drop this one with some sellers alone.
Selling for 15 keys:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21475516
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21500572
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21441976
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21409195 - "Quicksold" for 14 keys. Took a little over a day, but nonetheless fits the range.
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111897896 and http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198111897896?time=1406185200 - Sold for a Smoking Doctor's Sack (13.5 * 0.9 = 12.15 rounded to 12 keys). Using this mini-suggestion for an update: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53d3fe9d4dd7b8c0178b4568
Maybe something in between the two suggestion - ~14-15 - would be best
Yeah, but I did check the other suggestion, and two of the hats they're using are outdated. They very well could be lower, and the Genuine Robo-Sandvich sale could be an outlier.
sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21724902 13 unbumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21731929 13 young
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21500572 14
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21762787 15 unbumped
Sales:
http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53dc7da54dd7b8e05a8b4568 2 sales here
elfin = 13.5 * .9 = ~12
mini on elfin
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21570819 planets bombing run + 1 key = 13.5 after overpay