Suggestion: Cloudy Moon Your Worst Nightmare at 209–247 keys

Price Suggestion

~800 keys

moon

68 votes up

9 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Mon, 28 Jul 14 14:43:19 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

4 months outdated.

Sale #1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20124376

Traded this + Level 99 max(3 buds) + 1 bud for Spellbound Killér's Kabuto (17 * 0.9 = ~15 buds)

Backpack of seller

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036027738?time=1403247600 Before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198036027738?time=1403679600 After

Backpack of buyer

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048335259?time=1403420400 Before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048335259?time=1403585397 After

Total: ~11 buds

Sale #2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20641978

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20225156

Sold for Disco Beat Down Tough Stuff Muffs(9.5 buds) + Searing Plasma Trophy Belt(2.7 buds) + ~15 keys in sweets

Backpack of seller

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048335259?time=1403506800 Before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198048335259?time=1403679600 After

Backpack of buyer

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018843608?time=1402470000 Before

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198018843608?time=1404315009 After

Total: ~13.1 buds. Rounding off to 13 buds

Sale #3(Calling this an outlier)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20673497

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20955222

Sold for duped Sunbeams Desert Marauder(8.3 buds) + ?(Not sure)

Mini suggestion

Duped Sunbeams Desert Marauder

1. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20965668

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21231960 Sold for Purple Energy Master's Yellow Belt(7.25 buds) + 1 bud. Making this ~8.3 buds

Taking 8.3 buds as mini suggestion price.

Given the current sellers on the muffs at 5 and 7, I'm concerned about the high end. Valuing it at 9.5 is probably off by at least 2 buds.

Hmm, that is true, but the dbd muffs was just accepted 16 days ago though. Bad range?

Well, the thing with suggestions is rarely actually address the value of a hat at the time of the sale. For example, a suggestion 2 weeks ago looked at sales 1-2 months old, not necessarily sales that happened exactly 2 weeks ago.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53c1718d4dd7b8b0498b4568

If you look at the suggestion, generally, sale values kept dropping over time. The most recent sale at 7.4 wasn't even used in the range. That's also probably the sale closest in time to your sale used here. Probably counting the muffs at ~7.5 would be reasonable here which would put your range closer to ~11 flat, which seems much more accurate.

Alright then, will resuggest at 11 buds. Thanks for your help.