Resuggesting with a bit of extra proof.

Added 2 Buds for a Scorching Flames Whoopee Cap(5.2 with Overpay)(3.2 Total)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061694715?time=1398927600 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198061694715?time=1399164635

Sold for 3 Buds

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045104452?time=1401519600 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045104452?time=1401632223

Sold for 3 Buds

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045104452?time=1401632223 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045104452?time=1401951600

Sold for a Disco Beat Down Harmburg*(2.6 with Overpay, Outlier)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093495779?time=1399149025 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093495779?time=1399705200

Sold for a Miami Nights Front Runner*(3.4 with Overpay)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070264043?time=1399273200 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198070264043?time=1399795013

Sold for a Cloud 9 Scout Shako(3.1 with Overpay)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072310164?time=1401951600 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198072310164?time=1402038000

Sold for a Stormy Storm Soldier's Stash(4.5 with Overpay, Outlier)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067961977?time=1406012400 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198067961977?time=1406444400

Sold for a Cloud 9 Noble Amassment of Hats(3.5 with Overpay)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2681926467,652,5 Elfin History

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2682498218,137,5 Noble History

Sold for an Orbiting Fire Horrific Headsplitter(2.6 with Overpay, Outlier)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055176612?time=1402297200 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198055176612?time=1403061127

Sold for a Kill-a-Watt Le Party Phantom(3.2 with Overpay)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911489?time=1404370800 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198017911489?time=1404700047

Added a Black Bill's Hat(7 Keys) for a Searing Plasma Troublemaker's Tosslecap(3.8 with Overpay)(3.4 Total)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065252844?time=1405494000 -> http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198065252844?time=1405629384

Duped one Sold for 4 Buds: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21335208 (Credit to polar for this)

*Both the Harmburg and Front Runner were previously owned by [FBz] Hammie, even though he doesn't appear in the Elfin Deal's history it should be clear that he traded it back to back in under a day.

2.6 Is obviously too low for this. 3-3.1 is kinda outlierish considering a duped one got sold at 4. 3.2 seems to happen a tad frequently though so it can be used as the low range considering the number of sales below it. 3.4 and 3.5 also seem to happen, and the 4.5 outlier further proves that 3.2-3.5 should be fine.

Additional Proof/Counter-Proof/Constructive Criticism/Feedback is always appreciated.