Suggestion: Poisoned Shadows Noble Amassment of Hats at 91.2–152 keys

Price Suggestion

~1300 keys

shadow

29 votes up

48 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Mon, 04 Aug 14 00:54:55 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

ReRE-doing this due to errors in my research and post, (read below why 4.8 is okay, also sorry for the 3rd redo...)

Did waaaaaaay to much research on this, better have been worth it..

Proof Below:

First Owner:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18954710 - Sold for $180 USD, about 4.8 in Earbuds

As for the next owner. This was hard to figure out since I had to check the history of most of the items I saw, In the end I saw, he spent 8 Buds on which are proved right here:

1. http://backpack.tf/item/99475558

2. http://backpack.tf/item/94001628

3. http://backpack.tf/item/97097187

4. http://backpack.tf/item/93174535

5. http://backpack.tf/item/93101806

6. http://backpack.tf/item/276853849

7. http://backpack.tf/item/99557733

8. http://backpack.tf/item/92089081

8 Buds with T.Y.R.O. in the history on March 22nd 2014, day it was sold to Mr.Watch

So that gives us our high range, a bit wide but it's also a starting price so remember that,

Finally, the last piece of proof for the 3rd Owner.

http://backpack.tf/item/2075542336 He unboxed it and never sold it so it's safe to price it off of the two most recent sales (for the momment.)

Sorry for my 3rd redo, I want to make sure my suggestion is perfect and has no errors.

oh god dat range plsno

It's based off of what it's been selling for, take note it's a starting price mate, it'll most likely change after Halloween 2014.

dat range doe

ye, I thought it seemed a bit wide too, it's what it is though.

One sale is an outlier

Wait for a 3rd or find another

No other recent sales than these 2, and the 3rd owner will not sell. I could try re-suggesting in the future with how much T.Y.R.O bought it for.

http://prntscr.com/48mj8r As you can see the 4.8 isn't actually that much of an outlier, the previous Owner (T.Y.R.O) bought it for 4 pure. (If you don't trust my link then I can ask T.Y.R.O. for his trading history on when he bought it)

Additionally, the 2 most recent sales are $180(4.8) and 8 Buds Pure. nothing I can change. Range may seem wide but it's based off legit proof.

MORE EVIDENCE 4.8 IS OKAY TO BE THE LOW RANGE.

http://i.imgur.com/gDNDXA9.png , T.Y.R.O's trade history showing he bought the hat itself for 4 buds and 1 key in ref(?).

http://i.imgur.com/2bAGQ4S.png T.Y.R.O's trade history showing he sold it for 8 Buds Pure to Mr. Watch which supports the high range and low range aswell.

Thats it for "recent" sales. If I need to get more proof that 4.8 isn't an outlier I'd have to go all the way back to October 2013.

24 Nov? and 22 mar?? Very Long time..... :/

Too large of a gap...

Honest, I think this is not the time to do the suggestion for this. I know JC has received higher offers than I had, and I also know that $180 was way too low for this hat.

Samith was selling for cash only, and wouldn't take bud equivalency, even if offered higher(I know, I offered more myself).

Being how long ago these sales had occurred, I believe it is incorrect to price this now. It'd be like me trying to price my harvest noble after buying it a year ago, just not happening. The reason I had not priced the noble at the time of me paying 8 buds was due to myself knowing that more than one person was collecting for Tyro's(look at his trade yourself), and that the rules at the time didn't have those fancy exceptions for rare hats. I know Tyro bought it for cheap, as he also told me he bought it from some guy that unboxed it on halloween. That specific noble didn't appear until a bit later, from this guy. http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15930303

Honestly, if you think that guy knew what he was doing with unusuals, I'd be very surprised.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19818114#latest

If you look here, JC has even said he has received offers higher than 8.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20012335

Here on this trade, he even received an offer of a beams con cap+bud, which is ~6.4 according to bp.tf's rules. I know offers don't bode well with Bp.tf's policys, but stating that 4.8 wasn't a quicksale is quite incorrect.

Also, if we're going to start throwing out proof that's 8 months old to make that low end notable, I'll throw in some equally old proof to counter it.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15656301

Sold to ODoyle Rules for 8 buds pure.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15663401

Sold for 10 buds pure to the collector Wilson.

Wilson, in fact, did not unbox that hat. jsin520 unboxed it, and it was the first one to come on the market. The second one dropped off directly into Samith's backpack after getting unboxed.

In conclusion, my thoughts on pricing this hat would be to wait for JC to sell it, if he ends up selling it. Pricing the hat so many months after the sale would give a very inaccurate range on the hat, especially due to how quick the proof you have dropped off of the market.

I agree watch