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Conservative drop.
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/?item=Camera%20Beard&quality=6&tradable=1&craftable=1
2x 1.55 / ~15x 1.66 (2 of them are painted)
Selling:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21702530 - 1.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21702458 - 1,33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21545406 - 1.33 (sold, 5 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21452629 - 1.44
http://bazaar.tf/trade/936268 - 1.44 (not well bumped)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21671779 - 1.55
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21713546 - 1.66 (painted violet)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21001768 - 1.66 (1 month)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21657540 - 1.66 (3 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21623762 - 1.66 (3 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21709293 - 1.66 (young)
something more to add
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21738163 - 1.22
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21754707 - 1.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21747618 - 1.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21545406 - He may have sold it a long time ago and forget to hide it. Can't confirm
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21702530 - Never bump + Offline since he put it there.
Basically, no real proof for your low-end.
Do some more research then return?
to be fair the second one actually listed it before - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21700517
also, found the one who bought the first one - http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21702458
it was listed just today so probably it was recent. he buys craft hats at 1 ref so probably it was sold via that trade given how it was listed at 1.33 once more
I had 2, took forever to sell at 1.66. Makes sense.