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2 on the market and 2 in existence:
PROOF:
Evidence #1
http://i.imgur.com/iyaZKM3.png - Sold for 4 pure flat
Evidence #2
http://gyazo.com/ddfd2fd7a551ecc09090fe733cd6b1cc - Sold for a phosporus prince tavish's crown (3.465 rounding to 3.5), A Specialised Killstreak strange festive grenade launcher w/ parts airborne enemy kills, Domination kills and Gib kills
Mini for specialised killstreak strange festive grenade launcher. All sales from 1st of august :
Keys = £1.46 from SCM sales (http://steamcommunity.com/market/listings/440/Mann%20Co.%20Supply%20Crate%20Key -
(all together including strange part and specialised killstreak calcualtion =
you need to calculate overpay on the tavish
3.85 is middle range price for hat times .9 = ~3.5, so he did calculate overpay.
Here's some extra sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21510006 Sold for a Time Warp Front Runner (Unpriced) (Later sold for Logo Impaler + 1 bud = 4.2 * 0.9 = 3.8 + 1 = 4.8)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21412458 Sold for Towering Pillar of Shades (3.5 at time of purchase)
Your puchase:
(7.7 keys (Saying 8 because its specialized) + 1 bud (sticky) + ? (pro bottle) + ? (pro eyelander) + 1.5 keys (screen) + 1.66 ref (targe) + 4.5 keys (gold sticky) + 3.5 (tavish) + 1 key = 5+ buds at least)
You're basing a price off one sale. Extra accountable sales proves that 4 can't be correct price, but instead there should be a range.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21205234 3 weeks B/O 5
My best opinion is 4-5 range for this hat would most likely be suited best.