Suggestion: Green Confetti Larrikin Robin at 19–24.7 keys

Price Suggestion

~8.25 keys

g.fetti

219 votes up

186 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Thu, 28 Aug 14 20:17:16 +0000 by polar.

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Comments

Has no accepted suggestions and had three bad previous suggestions, downvote.

Larger suggestion window would help edit this so much; but apparently people deel wid it all the time.

Hat is 12 months outdated, needs new range and not just a refresh.

I do apologize if SCM (I gotta stop calling it Source Community Market) prices are a bit bullcrap, I was told buds at $32-35, will meet in the middle with $33, and keys at $2.

As of posting, buds are 19 keys. 1 key = about 0.13 buds.

7 Sellers (sorted lowest-highest B/O, highest offer if no B/O):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21878836 - B/O of 18 keys, no offers - Young, regularly bumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18611442 - C/O of a bud; Offers: 18 keys (retracted) | Dead Presidents Dread Knot (15 keys) - Unsold for 4 months

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21186485 - B/O of a bud; Offers: Dead Presidents Cyborg Stunt Helm (unpriced) | Nuts YWN (15.5 keys) | Smoking Robin (18 keys) | Specialized Aussie FaN w/ Damage Dealt, Point Blank, Scouts Killed, 2 keys in parts attached (majority of SCM sales between $44 and $55, so roughly 1.4 buds) - still unsold for 4 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21877667 - B/O of 1 bud or 20 keys, no offers - Young, appears to be somewhat regularly bumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21817383 - Offered Killawatt plumbers pipe + Filamental + Scrap Sack (roughly 20 keys) - unregularly bumped; Unsold for 3 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21737646 - B/O of 20 keys; offered Spec. S.F. Stickybomb (3 on SCM, one is $53.17 with Doms, Damage Dealt and Buildings Destroyed - no parts is roughly 1.6 buds (parts add to total of 7 keys, 3.5 after attachment)) - poorly bumped, unsold for 1 week

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18632260 - B/O of 2 buds and is only taking pure; outlier, no offers - poorly bumped, unsold for almost a week

Solds at 1.1:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21409060 - Sold for Smoking Triboniophorus Tyrannus (1.1 buds) - 2 weeks ago - http://i.imgur.com/ir5IRnG.png

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19986032 - Sold to me for Strange Outback + Smoking After Eight YWN + a key (1.1 buds) - More than a month ago - http://i.imgur.com/EzbiKq3.png

Sold at >1.1:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21408839 - Sold for a mess of items: S. KS Original w/ Damage Dealt and Soldiers Killed + Vintage Specialized Luger ($22 on SCM, ~11 keys) + Spec Aussie Flamethrower (Sell around $63 on Market, roughly 2 buds) + 1 key (2.7 buds, 2 after overpay?), person clearly wanted it. - 2 weeks ago - Check backpack, has three said items (good for the seller)

Sold at <1.1:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21328074 - Sold for Nuts Chapeau painted gold + key + sweets (1.05 buds) - 2 weeks ago - http://i.imgur.com/89mi2xV.png

Sorta odd trade of mine:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21161422 - Sold it for the S.F. Sticky, however I added ~6 keys in overpay, because he received an offer of a Stormy Larrikin + Strange Outback + 3 keys, I offered up because you know, S.F, save that crap for Christmas. I feel like I blew it. (recently got it signed by rays (creator of rayshud) for the heck of having a signature and hopes of selling it for more) I'm not sure whether to price the Larrikin here for less or the Sticky for more. - 2 weeks ago, unsold for 2 weeks beforehand - http://i.imgur.com/ecfeMyT.png

tl;dr: plenty of unsolds at current range but still is possible, and somehow 2 is possible and over 1.1 is offered.

I would also like to explain one quick thing: If the offers are accumulative of one offer, I used plus signs, if they are seperate offers, I used the | sign.

As I am relatively new to pricing thing (and this being the first suggestion I actually took seriously...), I'd appreciate it if anything seems wrong such as overpay prices or bad range. Tips on how to find more solds would also be appreciated and support with such things would also be appreciated. I'd also like a confirmation that overpay is considered 3/4 after? If there appears to be a flaw in the range, I'll be more than happy to fix it.

Didn't really checked it yet but saw this and which made me question the whole suggestion...

" I based buds at $40 and keys at $2."

Buds are around - $32 - $35

Keys are around - $1.80 - $1.90

Not sure where you got the values from.

I generally see buds associated at $40, and keys usually around $1.98; rounded the keys two cents up.

Buds are nowhere near $40.

Okay, I will fix. Thanks for saying something.

If it's the SCM, you have to take the average key sale price on the day it sold, and match how many keys buds were worth on the day of the sale and you'll get your price. This is what the mods have told me when using money sales

Okay, will update; again. However what I'm basing as SCM value is where the median sales are within a month (basically the more common area for the sale line to be), so for keys, it appears to be between $2.45 and $2.50, however I question such a pricing method because SCM sales taxes. One of the worst thing for trading with money. I would have to say that Marketplace.tf would be a better place to get an average price if it was as commonly used as SCM, so I'm sorta on the fence about where to base keys because sales are very commonly happening because SCM. It will be something I'll think over after I get some sleep because sleep helps me stay coherent and coherency will help me think about such economic things easier and better.

EDIT: One hour has passed. Cannot edit OP but will post comment threads about such updates.

This hat sells frequently for an unusual hat, so you will need multiple sales at 1.3 buds to raise the high end to that.

You may not use the price of keys in real cash to convert SCM sales. If you must convert an SCM sale to keys, then use the price of keys on SCM at the time of the sale. The Vintage Specialized Lugermorph which sold for $22 on SCM would be around 9 keys.

Strange Festive Stickybomb Launchers sell much more frequently than Fetti Robins do, so do not use the Robin to update the price of the Launcher unless that sale happens to support other Launcher sales.

In the update below, I did use the SCM sales of that day (an average due to it showing a more precise time on the buy/sell order items, whereas I cannot make a more precise time when people sold it; more or less the day only; based the time it sold as when the trade was closed.).

Revised the sold of over 1.1:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21408839 - Sold for a pile of items; a Strange Killstreak Original with Damage Dealt and Soldiers Killed, a Vintage Specialized Lugermorph, and a Specialized Killstreak Aussie Flamethrower (total of 2.97 buds... Christ.) - sold on July 24th.

Thanks to The Real SSJ5 for pointing out to get a more accurate price to look at the sale time and look at the average of SCM solds on that same day.

Update:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21878836 (first seller link) has sold for 17 keys + sweets (.9 buds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18611442 (second seller link) got an offer of an S.F Knife + a Strange Robro, however offerer does not have said items (anymore?), but the seller still has the robin. (1.3 bud offer)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21877667 (fourth seller link) got offered a Bubbling Pink as Hell Connoisseur's Cap (1 bud, outdated price)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21737646 (sixth seller link) Now closed from inactivity.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18632260 (last seller link) Just more complaints of overrated prices.

tl;dr, another <1.1 sold, more offers, a trade went inactive and more complaints of overrated prices.

UPDATE (8/22):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21877667 (Fourth Seller Link) Unsold? - Offered Terror-Watt One Man Army if he added sweets, trade owner is banned. Don't know what to take of it now.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21817383 (Fifth Seller Link) Sold - Will find out how much for, currently is offline as of post. - 1 week ago.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/18632260 (Seventh Seller Link) Still Unsold - Down from inactivity...

That clears up almost all of the OP sellers and will find more current sellers in just a bit.

As for the person who was offline, he was it was a bud or something and then just took me off his friends list. So I don't know whether I want to count that.

UPDATE (8/22, pt. 2):

NEW SELLERS:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21991692 - Unsold, 1 week old, irregularly bumped | Wants 1 bud (or 20 keys for them) or 1.3-1.4 buds in items.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22161519 - Unsold, less than a day old | Taking offers; No B/O. Will update as new stuff comes up.

So far nothing new on the Classifieds or bazaar.tf (only one on bazaar is the second unsold link in OP).

not really sure where you get your range from

I'm not sure what your point is about the steam community market, or "As of posting, buds are 19 keys. 1 key = about 0.13 buds", but that shouldn't be in your suggestion. You list off several items (s.f. sticky launcher, an unusual or two) with their SCM prices when you can price them using backpack.tf, which is more reliable when making suggestions. If buds are 19 keys, then 1 bud = 1/19 = .0526, which still doesn't really matter.

As for your proof, 0.) You did quite a bit of research. Props for that. 1.) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21878836 you yourself said it sold for 17 keys + sweets (~.9 buds according to your estimate). 2.) You should update the "7 sellers" column to reflect which ones have sold, if possible, as more than half of them have. 3.) You shouldn't use the trade that you bought it from if it's more than a month old, as that is a lot of time. 4.) You have no proof of the 1.3 upper range, the best you can do with proof is .9-1.1 buds and count http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21408839 as a huge outlier. In my opinion you should close the suggestion, regather your proof up, and get a range supported by the sales, e.g. .9-1.1, instead of a range that is unproven on the high end.

Downvote for now, good luck.

As for 0 (why..?), Danke schene. 1) Okay cool. Glad we're on the same page? 2) Can't edit the OP after 30 minutes. So yeah. That's why I started posting the Update threads below the OP. 3) Some >month old proof is fine so long as it's one of the few sales that exist if used as primary proof. I'm not using it as primary proof, but it makes some decent support. 4) I never said I counted that, but christ that is a deal for the seller of the Robin. I was thinking about doing so, I only would like to see what happens with this suggestion; even if seen as a bad range, etc., I can always resuggest after the actual authority decides the action on this.

I also know what you're talking about when it comes to the SCM prices, the only problem with that is Killstreaks. Some killstreaks add some value to items; especially Specialized and Professionals. Normal killstreak kits I wouldn't add extra unless it was pretty much the rarest killstreak kit of TF2 or just a really good one that's popular for not using for a fabricator.

0.) I put 0 because I had already typed up everything else and I didn't want to change numbers, but I also didn't want to poop all over your suggestion. 1.) My point about you saying .9 buds as the price for it was that it was a sale below your lower range, so perhaps you ought to lower your range. 3.) Older proof is alright if you can't find other sales, but 2 month old proof for an item with quite a few sales is a stretch. 4.) Yeah it was quite the deal. If only I could get so lucky ;)

@SCM prices. It would probably be better to change the price of the killstreak kit on the market (e.g. a $5 kit = 2.5 keys by your $2/key pricing) and add that to the backpack.tf price of the item to get a more accurate and grounded price. Also, that way you can accurately apply the price of the parts attached. Other than that your reasoning is pretty solid.

Alright, I like the idea of using the kit only, the only problem I had originally was that some items have a more increased value for killstreaks, such as a person would much rather have a Strange Killstreak Sniper Rifle rather than a Unique Killstreak Sniper Rifle. But as such, I suppose I will see what happens and if this closes I will fixate the range to be a little wider, and use the better tips I've received.

Hopefully no one has already copied down the proof (and fine-tuned it) just to best me at the time and suggestion game. I've seen it happen and it's really upsetting to see that proof get taken.

I don't think people value a strange killstreak sniper rifle as being better than a unique killstreak sniper rifle, rather that they view a unique killstreak sniper rifle as being less than a strange. I hope that makes sense. If I see a professional killstreak sniper rifle kit on a stock sniper, I think "boy that's a waste of a good kit" and would value the weapon as being less than the cost of the kit. On the other hand, if I see a professional killstreak kit on a strange sniper, I think "that's worth the price of the kit plus the price of the s. sniper rifle, because people will actually want it because people care about tracking their kills."

Multiple sellers selling at 1 buds. And the 1.3 offers are coming on a hat that has a b/o of 1.1. Offers / sales cannot be valued more than a hats pure b/o. Not enough here for the high end. It looks like a range of 1-1.1 would work.