Not sure if outlier.

I added Ian_Dukeman, offered him my luger

He said i'd have to add as he valued the luger at only 5 Buds [..], probably something like 5.

idk..

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20336711 - sold in 4 days for a clean houwar ~10.5 pure

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198044741526?time=1408863600 - multi trade deal involving an outdated and unpriced hat (vivid haz)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053714004?time=1408690800 - looks like basically the same trade as above except for a stormy haz

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21810825 - was offered on a DUPED harvest ballcap (he originally offered the flies hive, but swapped it for this as you note)

Mini for the DUPED harvest ballcap:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21966347 - duped burning bicorne? which was later sold for a logo tc (can't tell if these were 1:1)

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198093109764?time=1407135600 - aces view + 10 buds for 11 buds in hats + this...

Eh... I don't know. Ballcap is probably under 16. Is the hive really 16 after overpay? There's a b/o at 16 and they are just not selling. I think the value here is probably closer to 14-15, and I would feel better if we waited for more sales.