http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2884380101,97,5 <--> Before , http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2885365953,51,5 <-- After. (added 2 keys in sweets!) so toque(http://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Tough%20Guy%27s%20Toque/Tradable/Craftable/7) ~1.5 buds - 2 keys (0.11buds) = 1.4 buds

Another sold : Valley ( Hellfire ~6buds ) sold for tf logo beanie (~1.2) + G energy Private (~3buds) + 15 pure key(~0.8 buds) + spec ks ambassador(~1.5buds) = 1.2+3+0.8+1.5 = ~6.5 proof : http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22040115 <-- Bfore --> After --> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22065336 so its about ~1.3 in the trade session if we count the '' overpay ''

feel free to show counterproof though, i might very well be wrong here.