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My second go at this, I found solds this time
Price is a year old
Classifieds:
1 seller at 17 keys (Painted Gold)
1 seller at 1.26 buds (Painted Black)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21807204
Selling for 1 bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21930776
Sold for 1 bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21921614
Sold for 24 keys = 1.26 buds (Same guy who posted in the classifieds)
There are only 5 in existence so finding 4 sellers is helpful. Support and criticism is appreciated.
1st OP trade sold already
2nd OP trade sold already since not in his backpack and not on market (just checked)
3rd OP trade still in his backpack. Hasn't sold. I'd say 1 bud flat in price.
I don't think the las one actually sold for 24 keys flat. Also sales at 1 bud and 1 seller at 17 indicate that that one is an outlier.
1 buds sells fast, 1.3 doesn't sell. Meh. The value on this is probably right in between, and the range captures this. So I don't have a problem.