you need sales not b/o's, the only proof you provided where the sale at 14 cause i agree, that bud sale looks suspicious as f***

If that second did sell at 1 bud then it makes no sense because the person who apparently bought it for 1 bud tried to sell it for 1 bud (still has it, but inactive).

*edit* I just saw. Still can't be used as valid proof without knowing what it actually sold for.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22202137 --> This one sold in less than 2 days; check their BP history. Almost certainly a quicksell.

Sorry, but if that's your only proof for 16 keys, I'm afraid I'll have to downvote.

(P.S.: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22129143 is 2 weeks old and is now aiming for 17 keys. If it goes through, re-suggest @ 17-19?)

This trade appears to have gone for 1 bud

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21252534

8/12/14

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004236703?time=1407826800

8/19/14

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198004236703?time=1408431600

You can see that the only apparent change is that the hat is gone and a bud is new items. Nothing else major traded. 16 - 19 is possible new price.