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~1050 keys
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Unusual Desert Marauder Poisoned Shadows
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1 of 2 ([url]http://backpack.tf/premium/search?cat=particle&particle=76&defindex=400&tradable=-1&level=-1[/url] 1 original and 1 traded)


"Any hat can be priced based on a single sale if ALL these criteria are met:

- There are no other recent sales in the last 3 months [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20248896[/url] previous IDs are < 2.450.000.000 ~ 4 months)

- The effect is not a summer 2013 effect. (robo, 2013 halloween effects can be used as they are often rarely traded and rarely unboxed)

- The hat went to a collector or person who intends to keep the hat. A collector can be identified by looking at the person's trade history, item history of similar unusuals in the backpack OR if the owner has not resold the hat 1 month after the sale occurred. (buyer has the hat since July the 27th and not resold since ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21565516[/url] B/O 10 buds)"


So now let's take a look at the sale [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20248896[/url]

The buyer offered a DBD Anger, but the seller asked for more.


When looking at the bp's history :

[url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005098825?time=1406358000[/url] -> [url]http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198005098825?time=1406444400[/url]

DBD Anger + duped Peace Noble + buds

Anger was 6.75 buds at the time, Noble is 1.75 buds (< 3 buds so not concerned by mini even if duped) + 1 buds


Making the sale at (6.75+1.75)*0.9 + 1 = 8.65 buds ~ 8.7 buds

    wouldnt 9buds flat be better?since its so expensive,rounding it by 0.3 wont really affect the hat.

      I don't think rounding below 15 buds is current, I'll leave it as it is


      Edit : according to the rules

      "For unusuals listed in keys, please round to the nearest integer

      For hats <10 buds, using up to 1 decimal place is fine.

      For hats 10-15 buds, rounding to the nearest 0.5 buds is reasonable.

      For hats 15-50 buds, rounding to the nearest 1 buds is reasonable

      For hats 50-100 buds, rounding to the nearest 5 buds is reasonable

      For hats >100 buds, rounding to the nearest 10 buds is reasonable"

    At the time of the sale, the DBD anger wasn't 6.75.


    Sale happened July 27

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21388463 - b/o of 6 since July 20?

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20275940 - b/o of 6 for even longer?

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20395712 - sold for a stormy TC back in June

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21581839 - sold for the blizz KE close to when the sale happened


    DBD anger was close to its current value of 5-5.7 at the time of the sale. Definitely less than 6 given the b/os. Sale is closer to ~7.8