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12 months old price
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20314452 - offered cloudy topi + electrostatic sensei (~3.5) + stormy private eye (~1.4) for NB hazmat (~6.9) (+ hazmat's owner added 2 bills ~0.7) = 6.9 + 0.7 - 3.5 - 1.4 = ~2.7 (no overpay since offered) ( http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198064995767?time=1403161200 )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19865805 - sold for SBTWC slug ~3.1*0,9 = ~2.8 ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20374080 )
The second buyer added two keys pure and one in items along with the slug, making it 2.9
http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066308086?time=1402815600
That doesn't worth resuggesting lol, close enough
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20524571 - offers are significantly higher than your suggested range (was sold in a complex sale)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22079655 - also involved in a complex sale
Your sale #1 is too complex to use, and the value on your sale #2 was probably hard to determine at the time because the sale happened one month before the burning bat metal slug got a price. Based on the offers, I'm guessing the range should be 4-5. But we will need to wait for more clearly defined sales before pricing this. This is definitely low. I'll give you a bit of time to close this.
Sale #1 involved 3 hats, all of them are up-to-date, can't see a problem here. NB haz was updated as well
About sale #2. He sold a slug for miami modest ~3.5*0,9 = ~3.2, seems right enough.
I can't get that - if the hat is unpriced, what's the problem for the trader to do some kind of research to clear the things up about its price, why should we care about it.
I dunno - these 2 sales make up a perfect range together. What is more, this price does make sense since:
- Hellfire topi, 2 exist ~3
- Misty skull topi, 2 exist ~3.2
- Knifestorm topi, 1 exist ~3.3
- Secret topi, 4 exist ~3.4
And 9 cloudy moon topis exist, the price of ~2.8 seems logical enough.
EDIT: " http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22079655 - also involved in a complex sale"
This was duped ghosts belt + cloudy moon topi for dbd vive la france, I've used it in my other suggestion (and this suggestion was needed for pricing dbd vive)
If this was 2.7-2.8, it wouldn't be getting offers consistently higher than 3. I wouldn't be opposed to a range of 3-4, but 2.7-2.8 is low given:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20524571
Stormy War Pig 4+
TW Anger 4
Misty Dogger 4?
C9 Whirly + Nuts Tyrants 4?
"how much to add on top of a burning topi?" 3+
Misty Shanter 3
If this was really 2.7-2.8, it wouldn't be getting that many offers above 2.7-2.8. Please keep in mind, moon has always been the highest if not one of the highest effects on sniper. You saying hellfire, misty, knifestorm are 3-3.3 further shows to me that this is probably low. I'm not necessarily opposed to making the range ~3-4. But 2.7-2.8 is low here, and there is enough uncertainty in those sales to close this.