Suggestion: Kill-a-Watt Law at 161.5 keys

Price Suggestion

~36.5 keys

kill-a-watt

108 votes up

5 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sun, 31 Aug 14 21:10:05 +0000 by the submitter.

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Comments

Attempt #2. Noticed some still valid sales, thought I'd throw them in. Anyway, I hope this one works out.

Sales:

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21998524 - Sold for C9 Noble Amassment + N&B Gibus

(3.85 * 0.9 = ~3.5) + (5.6 * 0.9 = ~5) = 8.5 buds

Stated in the trade's notes it was a quicksell. He had been trying to sell it for a while, mind you.

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http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1402729200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049054413?time=1402815600 - Sold for Vivid Stash (~8.6 buds, rounding to 8.5)

Polar stated this sale in the last suggestion (and yes, it's still valid, barely) and said a bud may have been added - none of the buds seem to have been involved though, dunno if this is just histories being arsey or not... Correct me ASAP if I'm wrong here.

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20331548 - Sold for Secret Noble Amassment (~10.8 buds)

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20374019 - Sold for GE and PE Luchadore (both duped, multiplying by 0.82 in this case)

(6.75 * 0.82 = ~5.5) + (7.75 * 0.82 = ~6.4) = 11.9 buds, rounding to 12.

Probably unreliable to use as evidence. Both are duped, after all.

Sellers / Support proof:

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21951243 - Unsold at 10 buds for ~2 weeks

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22014230 - 15, 2 weeks

Has rejected an offer of a TW Crone's (~10.4 after overpay) and another of a KaW Merc's Mohawk (~7.7 after overpay)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22293944 - 15, young

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19699560 - Old, but sold but a DP TC + Smoking Fedora + KaW Birdcage = ~10 buds total

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I really would like to say 8.5 is a quicksale, due to that first sale, but w/ the vivid stash sale, 8.5 seems like it has to be in the range. Keeping the Lucha sale out of the picture too (duped hats, ew) and despite the supporting sale of ~10, I think 11 is impossible, with that 10 bud B/O there.

Say goodbye, 3 bud range. o3o

So if there are sales for 10.8 and 12 buds in unusuals and there are sellers rejecting 10.4 bud unusuals how is it that you are suggesting the price be 8.5? I don't think 2 low sales constitutes it dropping to those prices when there are still high sales being made. Also Stash is 9.5 now. was it 8.5 at the time of sale?

Well, I have 8.5, 8.5, 10, 10.8, 12. Let's bracket the invalid ones - 8.5, 8.5, (10), 10.8, (12).

Okay, yeah, 12 could still be valid, but they're both duped hats, and also outdated. And my 10 sale is too old, so that leaves us with 8.5, 8.5, 10.8. I used to not mind big ranges, but it looks like 10.8 is an outlier - that 10.4 offer was always gonna be rejected too, lets face it, the B/O's at 15. Also, the 10 bud one still hasn't sold, and it's been a while.

I also applied overpay on the Stash - 9.5 * 0.9 = 8.6, rounded to 8.5.

And another thing, the higher sales are older - the Luchas and the Secret Noble are a lot older than the C9 Noble + N&B gibus. Newer sales take precedence, and this is a summer effect that's showing signs of dropping. There are no rather recent higher sales that I have found. If I find any, I'm happy to re-suggest at a better range.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21951243 - can't identify, was sold with DP Viewfinder (8.6) + Time Warp Glengarry (5.5) + Hellfire Titanium Pillar (unpriced) + Roboactive V. Tyrolean (~16) + Demonflame Tricorne (unpriced) + Anti-Freeze Noir (6.2)

maybe for golden pan? was in the sellers BP at some point... probably too complex for use as proof, noir / bonnet / tyro are outdated

The first sale is wrong on 2 counts. Yes, he was QS for 10 pure, but his QS trade wasn't even up for a day. Proof: he made the trade on the 15th ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21998524 ) and I listed mine the day after on 16th ( http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22014230 ) so I'd really like to know how he had been trying to quicksell it a while?

Secondly the Gibus was priced at a lot more at the time, which I'm pretty sure means you can't use the new price which was updated several days after the trade occurred. Correct me if I'm wrong. Price passed 11 days ago ( http://backpack.tf/vote/id/53f4b3a32f822b4d2e8b4812 ) I traded on the 15th (16 days ago). Not only that but my trade was used to lower the Gibus, so surely it can't be used to lower the Law in turn, it just makes no sense.

You're right on the gibus part, till then I'll have to downvote this suggestion because of it.

The person who was "quickselling" it had made multiple trades. Yes, that's rather dubious still, and it's arguable he still didn't own it for long.

Also, I messed up the Gibus, yes. I'll calculate how this'll change everything and re-suggest if necessary.