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EOF OMA
Mini:Two year old price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22096741 B/O of 1.3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/20772900 Sold + Planets Guad (16.5 keys, = 0.87 buds) for O,Fire Modest (2.8)
(2.8 * 0.9) - 0.87 = 1.65 (rounding to 1.7)
Histories:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2886270535,601,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2724840552,247,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2740827712,139,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21143499 Offered Smoking Dragonborn (1.6 after overpay)
No actual proof, but helps to suggest that the Modest sale isn't an outlier.
Let it ride.
Should be 1.3 flat because the Smoking Dragonborn offer was retracted, which made the 1.7 sale outlier :/
And then I'd be basing the price of this hat ONLY on a B/O.
It's not fair to say which the outlier is based on that evidence, so we'll be sticking with the odd, wide range X3