Re-suggest - thanks to Need 4 Weed 2 for that. Corrected a couple of trades.

Sales:

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22113486

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045399485?time=1408863600

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198045399485?time=1409036400 - Sold for T-Watt TC (18, outdated (check out the mini!), taking at 13 as that was the B/O)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21183840

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050409396?time=1407913200

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198050409396?time=1407999600 - Also went for T-Watt TC + 2 buds in items (18 * 0.9 = ~16) + ~1.8 = ~18

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22022889

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095576590?time=1408086000

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198095576590?time=1408172400 - Histories show it went for another fucking T-Watt TC (am I getting punk'd or something? where the fuck are the cameras? ~16)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21970008 - 1:1 for a DBD Law (check out the mini!) (8.8 * 0.9 = 8)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21171186

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066038525?time=1404802800

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198066038525?time=1405148400 - 1:1 for 13th hour antlers (This guy collects them and this was before the misc update for the antlers; was unpriced before then so this is unusuable)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22089959

http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198053783254?time=1408431600 - Sold for A LOT OF ITEMS HOLY FUCK:

Refined items:

Strange Specialized Killstreak Baby Face's Blaster (1.33 ref)

Strange Professional Killstreak Half-Zatoichi (3 ref)

Classified Coif #36 (4.66 ref)

Spook Specs #36 (2.66 ref)

Cremator's Conscience painted Pink as Hell (5.35 ref)

Genuine Wilson Weave painted Team Spirit (5.57 ref)

Dashin' Hashshashin (7.16 ref)

Scotsman's Stove Pipe painted The Bitter Taste of Defeat and Lime (5.02 ref)

Bonk Boy (2 ref)

Vintage Foster's Facade painted Australium Gold (2.83 ref)

Vintage Foster's Facade painted Team Spirit (5.24 ref)

Vintage Tyrolean painted Australium Gold (3.49 ref)

Gentleman's Gatsby painted Australium Gold (3.32 ref)

Vintage Modest Pile of Hat (5 ref)

Brigade Helm painted Balaclavas Are Forever (6.99 ref)

Napper's Respite painted Team Spirit (6.24 ref)

Genuine Tyrant's Helm painted Mann Co. Orange (5.5 ref)

Tyrant's Helm painted An Air of Debonair (5.35 ref)

Team Captain (4.66 ref)

Warsworn Helmet painted Pink as Hell (5.69 ref)

Lumbricus Lid (5.83 ref)

Runner's Warm-Up painted Australium Gold (3.32 ref)

Bird-Man of Aberdeen painted Australium Gold (4.83 ref)

Genuine Scrap Pack (3 ref)

Sneaky Spats of Sneaking painted The Bitter Taste of Defeat and Lime (6.35 ref)

Rail Spikes painted Aged Moustache Grey (4.07 ref)

Genuine Menpo painted The Bitter Taste of Defeat and Lime (5.18 ref)

Prussian Pickelhaube painted The Bitter Taste of Defeat and Lime (5.18 ref)

Vintage Mining Light (3.49 ref)

Non-Craftable Camera Beard painted Australium Gold (2.83 ref)

Whiskered Gentleman painted Muskelmannbraun (2.33 ref)

Ornament Armament painted Mann Co. Orange (3.33 ref)

Breakneck Baggies painted Australium Gold (3.83 ref)

Chronomancer (5.66 ref)

Genuine Criminal Cloak (2.66 ref)

Strange Specialized Killstreak Jag (3.16 ref)

Genuine Fortified Compound (4.16 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Demoman Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Demoman Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Engineer Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Medic Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Pyro Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Scout Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Scout Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Scout Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Sniper Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Soldier Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Soldier Soul (0.33 ref)

Voodoo-Cursed Spy Soul (0.33 ref)

Non-Craftable Rogue's Col Roule (1.66 ref)

Bootie Time (1.33 ref)

Coffin Kit (1.66 ref)

Pyrotechnic Tote (1.66 ref)

Infernal Orchestrina (1.49 ref)

Merc Medal (1.33 ref)

Genuine Merc Medal (1.66 ref)

SpaceChem Pin (0.22 ref)

Exquisite Rack (4.16 ref)

Garlic Flank Stake (0.11 ref)

Steel Pipes (0.33 ref)

Beep Boy (1.66 ref)

Bearded Bombardier (4 ref)

Viking Braider (3.83 ref)

Flair! (1.83 ref)

Moonman Backpack (1.33 ref)

Special Eyes (1.33 ref)

Digit Divulger (2 ref)

Heavy's Hockey Hair (1.33 ref)

Armored Authority (1.66 ref)

Berliner's Bucket Helm (1.66 ref)

Buckaroos Hat (1.33 ref)

Genuine Company Man (1.33 ref)

Ghastlierest Gibus painted Australium Gold (3.99 ref)

Ellis' Cap (1.22 ref)

Hotrod (1.66 ref)

Safe'n'Sound (1.66 ref)

Bone Dome (1.33 ref)

Saxton Hale Mask (1.16 ref)

Spy Mask (0.22 ref)

Mair Mask (1.66 ref)

Football Helmet (1.33 ref)

Genuine Chief Constable (1.33 ref)

Black Watch (2.33 ref)

Rebel Rouser (1.33 ref)

Vintage Stockbroker's Scarf (0.66 ref)

Large Luchadore (1.55 ref)

Genuine Pilotka (1.33 ref)

Non-Craftable Plutonidome (0.33 ref)

Professor's Peculiarity painted Zepheniah's Greed (2.16 ref)

Respectless Rubber Glove (1.33 ref)

Respectless Rubber Glove (1.33 ref)

Pyro's Beanie (2 ref)

Non-Craftable Napper's Respite painted A Color Similar to Slate (2.99 ref)

Waxy Wayfinder (1.33 ref)

HazMat Headcase (1.66 ref)

Genuine Stahlhelm (1.33 ref)

Eliminators Safeguard (1.66 ref)

Scotch Bonnet (2 ref)

Non-Craftable Batter's Helmet (0.44 ref)

Planeswalker Goggles (1.66 ref)

Genuine Human Cannonball (2 ref)

Professional's Panama (1.33 ref)

Non-Craftable Soldier's Stash painted Mann Co. Orange (4.16 ref)

Tyrant's Helm painted A Deep Commitment to Purple (3.4 ref)

Sergeant's Drill Hat painted Zepheniah's Greed (2.16 ref)

Salty Dog (1.33 ref)

Hat With No Name (1.66 ref)

Stout Shako (1.66 ref)

Sight for Sore Eyes (3 ref)

Sight for Sore Eyes (3 ref)

Noh Mercy (3 ref)

Tough Stuff Muffs (1.66 ref)

Genuine Stovepipe Sniper Shako (1.33 ref)

Haunted Voodoo JuJu (Slight Return) (1.33 ref)

War on Smissmas Battle Hood (2 ref)

Kiss King (1.66 ref)

Non-Craftable Rump-o'-Lantern (0.33 ref)

Sign of the Wolf's School (1.33 ref)

Sign of the Wolf's School (1.33 ref)

Clan Pride (1.49 ref)

Pocket Medic (1.33 ref)

Whiskey Bib (2 ref)

Vintage Pyrovision Goggles (0.11 ref)

Made Man (2 ref)

Pocket Purrer (1.66 ref)

Dr. Whoa (1.66 ref)

Non-Craftable Dr. Whoa (1.33 ref)

Surgeon's Stethoscope (1.33 ref)

Stocking Stuffer (1.33 ref)

Stocking Stuffer (1.33 ref)

Liquor Locker (1.66 ref)

Danger (3 ref)

King of Scotland Cape (2.66 ref)

Strange Widowmaker (7 ref)

Strange Jag (3.16 ref)

Key items:

Vintage Professional Killstreak Lugermorph (8 keys)

Mann Co. Supply Crate Key (taking as 1 key)

Taunt: Flippin' Awesome (0.95 keys)

Strange Huntsman with Taunt Kills Strange Part (4.7 keys)

Strange Festive Sandvich (5 keys)

Strange Specialized Killstreak Diamond Botkiller Minigun Mk.I (3 keys)

Genuine Three-Rune Blade (1.95 keys)

Strange Outback Intellectual (1.3 keys)

Strange Specialized Killstreak Bazaar Bargain with Long-Distance Kills, Medics Killed and Headshot Kills Strange Parts (1.25 keys)

Hustler's Hallmark painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.22 keys)

Haunted Executioner painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.27 keys)

Ninja Cowl painted An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge (1.18 keys)

Vintage Foster's Facade painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.13 keys)

Bushman's Boonie painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.22 keys)

Vintage Vintage Tyrolean painted An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge (2 keys)

Professor's Peculiarity painted An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge (1.18 keys)

Triboniophorus Tyrannus painted An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge (1.22 keys)

Vintage Triboniophorus Tyrannus painted Pink as Hell (1.5 keys)

HazMat Headcase painted An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge (1.22 keys)

Strange Law painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue with Fires Survived Strange Part (4.04 keys)

Vintage Batter's Helmet painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.54 keys)

Ye Olde Baker Boy painted An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge (1.18 keys)

Troublemaker's Tossle Cap painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.4 keys)

Whoopee Cap painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.2 keys)

Cold Killer painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.22 keys)

Runner's Warm-Up painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.2 keys)

Virtual Viewfinder painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.36 keys)

Strange Huntsman's Essentials (1.4 keys)

Teufort Tooth Kicker painted A Distinctive Lack of Hue (1.36 keys)

Genuine Maul (4 keys)

Strange Festive Force-A-Nature (1.6 keys)

Bruiser's Bandanna (1.5 keys)

Dogfighter (1 key)

Bonk Helm painted An Extraordinary Abundance of Tinge (1.18 keys)

Bud items:

Orbiting Fire Team Captain (5.9–6.2 buds)

Refined items total: 316.83 / 7.385 = 42.9018 / 19 = 2.26 buds * 0.9 = 2.03 buds

Key items total: 65.47 / 19 = 3.45 buds * 0.9 = 3.11 buds

Bud items total : 6.05 * 0.9 = 5.45 buds

TOTAL SALE: 10.59 buds

After all that work, we can safely say that is an outlier. I did not add on KS values but they wouldn't have made too much of a difference. Maybe would've bumped it up to 11 - 11.5? Doesn't matter anyway.

Mini for the T-Watt TC:

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Quick side-note, looks like a lot are duped. I've attempted to get clean sales / sellers here.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22038014 - Sold for V. Pro KS Big Kill (~23 buds, the pro KS wouldn't add a notable amount extra to it)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/19837021 - Sold for C9 Gibus + Steaming Tyro + Stormy One-Man + S. Kritz (12.7 + 1.1 + 1.1 + 1.8 = ~17, tyro + one-man are outdated though)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22128277 - looking for 19

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22140342 - looking for 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22306315 - looking for 20

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22185131 - looking for 17

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21085197 - looking for 20

Taking 17 - 19, 20 doesn't seem to sell, V. Big Kill looking like an outlier here

Mini for the DBD Law:

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22255733 - 1:1 for DP KE (~7.1 buds, yeah I know, B/O was 20)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21800409 - sold for Heart Combust. Kabuto + Flies Honcho, S. Original (unusable probably, B/O was 10)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21650206 - unclear (maybe money?)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22320488 - looking for 20 (aww, that comment is so cute btw)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22317518 - looking for 16-18 (has gotten an offer of C9 Law + DP pyromancer's, what the fuck is this)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22083506 - looking for 20 (highest four offers are 8, 9.3ish, 9.6, 14)

Taking 8 - 9.6 (offer of 14 included a craft number) 8.8 as mid value.

Sellers and other relevant proof:

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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22267645 - looking for offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22041329 - looking for offers (has received a bunch of u. offers, mostly around 10 - 15ish, all turned down)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/22320602 - looking for offers (surprise, surprise. also received an offer of a bunch of C9s, seems low though)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/21311927 - 17 pure B/O (turned down KaW pullover lol)

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Okay, so we have sales at ~8, ~11, 13, 16, 18, and the antlers. We can assume 11 was a bulk deal, too. 8 is a painful outlier, and the value of that is questionable. Antlers, as we know, are just unusuable in this case. Knocking out the extremes would give us 11 - 18, but as 11 was a bulk deal, and is far from the set B/Os currently, 13 - 18 seems more doable, and that's just ugly; seeing as the 13 sale involved a T-Watt TC, 16 - 18 may be better. I'd generally knock out the 18 value as there is one selling for 17 but that had an offer of 20+ and the 18 sale isn't that old.

Any corrections, or help would be appreciated.